Ukraine should seize initiative on battlefield as soon as possible – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Ukraine should seize the initiative on the battlefield this year after US security assistance reaches the front.

Source: ISW

Details: US officials have indicated their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to believe that Ukraine should seize the initiative on the battlefield as soon as possible, given that if this initiative is given to the Russian side during 2024, it will provide Russia with a number of advantages.

The Financial Times reported on 5 May that US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Ukraine plans to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 aimed at retaking Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory after US military aid helps to halt further Russian advances in 2024. He added that US military assistance would not "instantly flip the switch" on the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Sullivan believes that US security assistance will allow Ukrainian forces to "hold the line" and resist Russian attacks throughout the rest of 2024.

However, the ISW continues to assess that it will likely take several more weeks for Western weapons and ammunition to reach frontline Ukrainian units and begin to have a tangible impact on the battlefield, and that the arrival of US military aid to Ukraine will likely allow Ukrainian forces to stabilise the front line and seize the initiative.

"Ukraine’s ability to liberate its territory and conduct counteroffensive operations rests on a number of unmade decisions in the West, Russia, and Ukraine and any external efforts to impose a timeline on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations ignore the reality of the battlefield situation," the ISW stressed.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 5 May:

• The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
• The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
• US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to assess that Ukraine should contest the theatre-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theatre-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024 will present Russia with several benefits.
• European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct "violent acts of sabotage" across Europe as part of a "more aggressive and concerted effort" against the West.
• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) seized on the Orthodox Easter holiday on 5 May to further its efforts to garner domestic support for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk and Robotyne.

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