Russia's actions in occupied Luhansk Oblast considered genocide – ISW

Mothers in hospitals in the Russian-occupied part of Luhansk Oblast are being threatened that their newborn children will be taken away if neither parent can prove that they have Russian citizenship. These actions violate Article II(d) of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention).

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Artem Lysohor, Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, said that from 6 May, mothers giving birth in hospitals in the occupied part of Luhansk Oblast will have to confirm citizenship of the Russian Federation for at least one of the parents of newborns in order to be discharged from hospital. 

ISW analysts noted that if this report is true, such actions violate Article II(d) of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which defines genocide as the imposition of measures designed to prevent births in a group of persons who are part of a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.

Russian occupation officials continue their efforts to militarise and indoctrinate Ukrainian youth in occupied Ukraine. On 1 May, the "Luhansk People’s Republic" ("LPR" is a self-proclaimed and unrecognised quasi-state formation in Luhansk Oblast – ed.) announced that it was developing a new textbook that would teach the modern history of the occupied Luhansk Oblast in accordance with Russian educational standards. 

On 2 May, Vladimir Rogov, the occupying official of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, stated that 200 children had recently taken part in military-patriotic games of the Russian military-patriotic youth organisations Movement of the First and Yunarmiya in the occupied cities of Berdiansk and Melitopol.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 May:  

• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight that Russia’s main goal for 2024 remains the seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as Russian forces plan for their summer 2024 offensive operation.
• The first deliveries of resumed US military assistance reportedly arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, although it will likely take several additional weeks before Western weapons and ammunition arrive to frontline areas at scale.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces in Ukraine have not significantly increased in size in recent months, but that the Russian military continues to improve its fighting qualities overall despite suffering widespread degradation, especially among elite units since the start of the war.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that the Russian military will likely maintain its current personnel replacement rate and will not generate the significant number of available personnel needed to establish strategic-level reserves for larger-scale offensive operations in 2024.
• Pavliuk stated that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces will be able to achieve victory in Ukraine solely through attritional warfare – a consistent throughline that Ukrainian officials and military analysts have emphasised in recent months.
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu issued a notably candid assessment of recent Russian advances in Ukraine and refrained from sweeping claims about the success of the Russian war effort, possibly in an attempt to temper domestic expectations about Russia’s near future successes in Ukraine ahead of the summer 2024 Russian offensive operation.
• A Russian insider source, who has routinely been accurate about past Russian military command changes, claimed on 2 May that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has replaced several high-level Russian commanders in recent months.
• NATO stated on 2 May that it is "deeply concerned" about intensifying Russian hybrid operations on NATO member territory and that these operations constitute a threat to Allied security.
• UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron announced the United Kingdom’s intent to provide long-term support for Ukraine and stated that Ukrainian forces can conduct long-range strikes within Russia with UK-provided weapons.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupiansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• Rostec General Director Sergei Chemezov announced that Russian state-owned defence conglomerate Rostec is increasing its production of all variants of guided glide bombs during a 3 May meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

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