US considers it unlikely that Ukraine's defences will collapse in near future – media outlet

The latest confidential assessment by the US military suggests that Russian forces will continue to advance in Ukraine in the coming days, but that the Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be defeated.

Source: European Pravda citing The New York Times, based on reports from more than a dozen US and European officials

Details: A US official quoted by the NYT believes that Russia will continue to "make marginal gains in the east and southeast leading up to 9 May," Russian Victory Day.

However, the official said the US military assessment concluded that "the Ukrainian military would not collapse completely along the front lines despite the severe ammunition shortages".

Other NYT sources do not believe that Russia has enough forces to launch a major offensive before 9 May: "That would require a large buildup of forces that American officials so far have not seen."

However, Ukraine will be able to stabilise the contact line with new military aid from its Western allies at best in the summer, and at worst by the end of the year, the article says.

Background:

• US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said yesterday that she believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin will resort to aggressive tactics, given that domestic and international events are developing in his favour.
• Earlier, the US had expressed hope that new US military aid unblocked by Congress would over time help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to regain the initiative on the battlefield, but a large-scale Ukrainian offensive is unlikely in the near future.

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