Russians launch 4 mechanised attacks in Donetsk to test reaction – ISW

Ivashkiv Olena — Wednesday, 29 May 2024, 05:19

A multiple-launch rocket system. Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Russian forces have conducted four mechanised attacks with reduced-company and smaller units along several operational fronts in Donetsk Oblast. They have not achieved significant success but were likely testing Ukraine's response after the battles in Kharkiv Oblast.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Video recordings published on 27 and 28 May show that Russian forces are conducting intensified platoon-size mechanised attacks:

to the east of Chasiv Yar
to the east of Novopokrovske
near Novomykhailivka
in Staromaiorske.

Russian forces made only minor advances in their attacks to the east of Novopokrovske and Staromaiorske and did not achieve confirmed advances near the settlements of Chasiv Yar or Novomykhailivka. Russian forces have reduced the pace of attacks and advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast and increased the pace of attacks toward the city of Pokrovsk (Avdiivka) in recent days.

ISW noted that these Russian mechanised attacks, one in each of the four Russian current operational axes, are limited compared to previous ones.

The attacks on 27 and 28 May were likely aimed at assessing Ukrainian forces' reaction and their defensive capabilities on the Donetsk front.

Recent Russian offensive actions in northern Kharkiv Oblast likely aimed to exploit Ukraine's shortages in manpower and equipment before the expected Western military assistance arrived at the front.

Russian forces likely intended to test if there were any weak spots in the front line in Donetsk Oblast.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 28 May:

Russian leader Vladimir Putin grossly misrepresented the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian domestic law on 28 May in order to further promote the Kremlin information operation claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine.
Ukrainian Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk directly responded to Putin's deliberate misinterpretation of Ukrainian law and explicitly stated that the Ukrainian Constitution and laws stipulate that Zelenskyy remain in office until the end of martial law in Ukraine.
Russian allegations about Zelenskyy's lack of legitimacy are a known Kremlin information operation that Kremlin officials have been promoting extensively in recent weeks, in part targeted at foreign audiences.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)'s Committee on Culture supported a resolution that recognizes Russia's deliberate erasure of Ukrainian culture as an element of Russia's genocidal campaign in occupied Ukraine, consistent with ISW's longstanding assessment that Russia is pursuing a broad occupation strategy premised on eradicating Ukraine's national identity and independence.
Russian authorities are preparing to intensify the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia throughout Summer 2024, further consolidating another component of Russia's genocidal campaign in Ukraine.
Iran's continued support for Russia's defence industrial base (DIB) and provision of lethal aid to Russia is bolstering Russia's technological output and military capabilities on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The Georgian Parliament overrode Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili's veto of Georgia's Russian-style "foreign agents" law in an 84-to-4 vote on 28 May.
A limited segment of the Russian ultranationalist information space has resumed its standard public criticisms of the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and warned that new Defence Minister Andrey Belousov may not solve certain systemic issues within the Russian MoD and military.
Portugal and Belgium both signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on 28 May.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin expressed support on 28 May for delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organisation in Russia, indicating that Russia will likely do so soon.
Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
The Russian military is reportedly intensifying efforts to recruit citizens from Central African countries to fight in Ukraine.