Russia accumulates forces on border with Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts – ISW

According to data collected and analysed by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are amassing their forces on the border with Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in order to stretch the front and to draw back and entrench Ukrainian forces in the border area.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces are reported to be concentrating unspecified numbers of troops in western Russia’s Belgorod Oblast near the border with Ukraine, likely to make Ukrainian forces go to the area and in order to prepare for offensive operations aimed at expanding Russia's foothold in the border area in Ukraine’s north-east.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 26 May that Russian troops were preparing for new offensives and were concentrating groups of undetermined size near the Ukrainian border, 90 kilometres north-west of Kharkiv.

Analysts stressed that Zelenskyy was referring to the Graivoron-Borisovka-Proletarsky area in western Belgorod Oblast. Satellite imagery of the area suggested that Russian troops had stepped up activities at bases and storage points in the area in recent weeks.

However, the current size of the possible concentration of Russian troops in the Graivoron-Borisovka-Proletarsky area remains unclear.

On 26 May, Andrii Demchenko, the spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, stated that Russian troops might launch offensive operations in Sumy Oblast or in areas of Kharkiv Oblast bordering Sumy Oblast in order to stretch and consolidate Ukrainian forces further along the border in Ukraine’s north-east.

Quote: "The Graivoron-Borisovka-Proletarsky area would notably offer Russian forces opportunities to launch offensive operations to the south in the direction of Zolochiv and Bohodukhiv, two Ukrainian towns north-west of Kharkiv City within 25 kilometres of the international border, or to the west in the direction of settlements along the P-45 highway that connects Bohodukhiv with Sumy City."

More details: In addition, experts pointed out that Russian troops could conduct offensive operations on either or both fronts and the Russian concentration here could be aimed at forcing Ukrainian forces to redeploy to a wider stretch of the border in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

Russian forces are also concentrating limited forces in Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk oblasts near the border with Sumy Oblast, and even a limited concentration in these areas could have the likely desired effect of further delaying and entrenching Ukrainian forces in the border area.

Russian forces are currently bringing their Northern Grouping of Forces near the border to its intended end strength and are likely to launch only limited offensive operations along the Sumy-Kharkiv line until the Northern Grouping of Forces is closer to its end strength.

Even limited Russian offensives in these areas would add pressure that would stretch Ukrainian manpower and equipment over a wider front and possibly allow Russian forces to establish tactical bridgeheads to support further operations either north-west of Kharkiv or towards the city of Sumy.

However, the Northern Grouping of Forces, even at the upper end of its stated end strength, would lack the manpower necessary to conduct a successful operation to surround or capture the cities of Kharkiv or Sumy.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 May: 

• Russian forces are reportedly concentrating forces of unspecified size in western Belgorod Oblast near the border with Ukraine, likely to fix and draw Ukrainian forces to the area and prepare for offensive operations that aim to expand the Russian foothold in the international border area in Ukraine’s north-east.
• Western officials continue to publicly debate Ukraine's right to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia amid Russian efforts to persuade the West to continue its self-imposed limitations and divide the NATO alliance.
• Russia's defence industrial base (DIB) will reportedly manufacture and refurbish three times as many artillery shells as the West will produce in 2024, although Russian shells reportedly suffer from quality-control issues and Ukrainian artillery is reportedly more precise than Russian artillery.
• Kremlin officials continue to indicate that Russia is not interested in meaningful negotiations with Ukraine and promote Kremlin information operations that aim to push the West to make concessions on Ukraine's sovereign territory and people.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk.
• Former Wagner Group fighters reportedly continue to form new units under Rosgvardia and Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz.

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