Western intelligence agencies suggest Ukraine will face "large territorial losses" this year

Western intelligence services believe that Ukraine will face "large" territorial losses by the end of the year.

Source: Welt, citing German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The article states that the "overall picture" for Ukraine at the moment looks bleak due to Russia's superiority.

The intelligence assessment says Kyiv is not expected to be able to "seize the initiative" in 2024. By the end of the year, Ukraine is likely to suffer "significantly greater territorial losses" than it already had since January.

The Russians are relying on artillery much more heavily than the Ukrainians, and above all, Russia can "more than compensate" for its losses. Kyiv, on the other hand, is unable to call up enough new soldiers "to compensate for losses and create reserves". The new conscription rules "will have an impact only in late summer", as recruits must first undergo training.

This assessment attributed the expected loss of territory by Ukraine to the current "defensive orientation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the resulting prolongation of fighting". Ukraine wants to "preserve personnel" and is currently "buying time by ceding territory". Kyiv hopes this will give it "time to mobilise and restore its defence industrial base (DIB). However, Russia's airstrikes on Ukraine's DIB could become a problem.

Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the opposition Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU or Christian Democratic Union of Germany) party and Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee for Oversight of the Intelligence Services, confirmed that Ukraine has problems with ammunition and conscription.

However, the official further said that "pessimistic reports about the situation are being spread", apparently with the aim of "showing that the situation is hopeless and that military support no longer makes sense". The aim is to "subtly but brutally" pressure Kyiv to "cede territory".

Kiesewetter commented on this intelligence assessment, saying that Ukraine can "continue to win", but "every delay in support" from Germany and other countries will make it more difficult and expensive.

Ralf Stegner, a member of Germany's ruling Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD or Social Democratic Party) and the oversight committee, said, however, that "in essence," the intelligence services' assessment was correct and "in line with what I know".

Stegner said Ukraine's failed offensive last year showed that "we can and should prevent Ukraine's defeat, but we cannot ensure its victory". Anyone who continues to demand that "weapon A be delivered faster, and weapon B be delivered in even greater quantities" is, in his opinion, chasing illusions. "Constantly increasing the dose when the medicine does not work is not convincing," the lawmaker added.

He believes that the narrative of the hopelessness of Ukraine's resistance can only be overcome when Chancellor Olaf Scholz's slogan that Ukraine will be helped "as long as it takes" is replaced by an "all-inclusive" approach. For example, Ukraine should be allowed to use Western weapons to attack Russian production sites, warehouses and transshipment points in Russia itself. Stegner added that red lines should disappear, and arms production should be accelerated.

Background:

• Anton Hofreiter, a politician from the German Green Party, called for no longer preventing Ukraine from attacking Russian territory with Western weapons.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg believes it is high time for some allies to reconsider restrictions on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine against targets in Russia.

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