UK Defence Intelligence reports growth in Ukrainian economy due to Black Sea exports

In April 2024 Ukraine exported 6.6 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, the largest volume since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which demonstrates Kyiv's ability to unilaterally export products via the Black Sea.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 22 May on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda

Details: UK Defence Intelligence notes that throughput at the Black Sea ports has "almost certainly" reached a monthly export volume exceeding any other during the full-scale war, including under the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI).

The analysts point out that approximately 5.2 million tonnes of total grain and oilseed exports were shipped from Ukraine's Black Sea ports in April this year, compared with the peak of 4.2 million tonnes under the BSGI in October 2022.

UK Defence Intelligence notes that the Ukrainian sea corridor has ensured about 1,600 transits of vessels and the export of 45 million tonnes of cargo since its launch in August last year. The majority has been agricultural exports – more than 30 million tonnes in nine months.

"The remainder is primarily iron ore and steel products, which previously could not be exported by sea during the BSGI. Overall, this will support Ukraine's economic recovery in 2024," the review says.

UK Defence Intelligence notes that supplies from Ukraine are vital for global food security. Grain exports from Ukraine will account for about 9.7% of world exports from July 2023 to June 2024.

"While agricultural exports are almost certainly dependent on the Black Sea ports, representing around 78% in volume, other routes remain in use," the agency notes.

UK Defence Intelligence adds that Ukraine continues to export grain and oilseeds via the Danube, which accounts for about 15% of volumes, and by rail and road – about 6% and 1% respectively.

In April, the media reported that Ukraine, Russia and Türkiye had conducted two-month-long negotiations on a deal on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea, which had been due to be announced at the end of March.

Background:

• After the full-scale invasion, amid Russia’s naval blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports in July 2022, Türkiye and the UN facilitated the conclusion of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
• Under the agreement, Ukraine safely exported almost 33 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea through what was known as the grain corridor. Russia withdrew from the deal in July 2023, stating that its demands had never been met.
• Türkiye then advocated for the reinstatement of the grain corridor with Russia's participation, but Ukraine was able to establish its own route.

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