Russians may transfer their airborne divisions to east – ISW

The Russians may deploy their airborne divisions from Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the east.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW reported that Russian military forces may be transferring elements of the 76th and 7th Airborne Divisions from Zaporizhzhia Oblast toward Ukraine's east, likely to bolster and intensify current offensive operations. 

Despite this, ISW still has to find confirmation that units of the 76th and 7th Airborne Divisions were redeployed to other fronts, although Russian and Ukrainian reports about this are significant and any redeployment of airborne forces from Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Ukraine's east will need further scrutiny in the coming days.

The report noted that any redeployment of these units would allow Russian forces to intensify their offensive operations and therefore increase pressure on Ukrainian forces, regardless of their location. 

ISW does not provide an assessment of which area is most likely for the redeployment of the Russian Airborne Forces, if it occurs at all.

However, ISW will continue to monitor reports on the possible redeployment of units from the 76th and 7th Airborne Divisions, as it poses a significant risk to Ukraine's ability to slow ongoing Russian offensive operations in Ukraine's east in the coming weeks before the US security assistance arrives.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 May:

• The Russian military is reportedly redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th airborne (VDV) divisions from Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the direction of eastern Ukraine, likely to reinforce and intensify ongoing offensive operations.
• The Russian military may seek to redeploy elements of the 76th or 7th VDV division or both to eastern Ukraine to support Russia’s offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and to capitalise on the current window of vulnerability before American military aid begins reaching the frontline at scale.
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of 30 April to 1 May.
• Russian state-run news outlets appear to be amplifying anti-Western rhetoric from former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and are negatively portraying Georgians protesting against Georgia’s "foreign agents" bill, likely in an attempt to destabilise and divide Georgia.
• The United Nations (UN) and Western organisations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia’s war effort.
• Russian insider sources speculated that the criminal investigation into Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov may also implicate another deputy defence minister, Ruslan Tsalikov.
• Bloomberg reported that four sanctioned Russian oil tankers have changed their names and are sailing under new flags.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
• Russian authorities continue recruiting convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine.

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