Putin replaced Shoigu from Defence Minister position to support protracted war in Ukraine – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is making replacements, including in the Russian Defence Ministry, to step up preparations for a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly preparing for a future confrontation with NATO.

Source: ISW

Details: Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as the Russian Defence Minister on 12 May, transferring Shoigu to the position of Secretary of Russia’s Security Council to replace Nikolai Patrushev.

ISW believes that these high-level reshuffles following the pseudo-presidential elections in Russia convincingly indicate that Putin is taking significant steps toward mobilising the Russian economy and defence-industrial base to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for future confrontation with NATO.

ISW added that Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economy minister in the Russian government and his recent involvement in managing various innovative domestic defence industry and drone projects has prepared him well to lead the Russian Defence Ministry apparatus, which is currently in a challenging position. 

"Belousov has a stronger reputation for being an effective technocrat, and insider sources have claimed that he has a positive relationship with Putin," the report stated.

ISW added that replacing Shoigu with Patrushev as the Secretary of the Security Council aligns with Putin's overall policy of quietly displacing high-ranking security officials by giving them peripheral roles in the Russian security sphere instead of simply dismissing them. 

ISW noted that previously Putin similarly sidelined his underperforming generals by appointing them to peripheral security and defence-related positions outside the direct chain of command, sometimes allowing them to "redeem themselves and return to Putin’s favour". 

In addition to Patrushev's dismissal, Putin mostly reshuffled the heads of the major Russian security services, indicating that he retains a core of loyal security officials.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 12 May:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defence on 12 May, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev. These high-level reshuffles following the Russian presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilising the Russian economy and defence industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.
• Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economic minister in the Russian federal government and his more recent involvement managing various domestic DIB innovation and drone projects, prepare him well to lead the struggling Russian MoD apparatus.
• Shoigu's replacement of Patrushev as Security Council Secretary is in line with Putin's general pattern of quietly sidelining high-level security officials by granting them peripheral roles within the Russian security sphere rather than simply firing them.
• Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct repeat strikes on Russian oil and defence industrial infrastructure, prompting Russian milbloggers to complain about Russian forces' clear and continued inability to defend against these strikes.
• Several German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO air defence systems stationed in NATO member states to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
• Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin highlighted Russian forces' continued difficulty repelling Ukrainian drones on the frontline.

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