Forcible repatriation of Ukrainian men back to Ukraine may harm Polish economy – Forbes
Poland is ready to assist Ukraine in repatriating its men subject to military service but if it happens, Poland’s economy will be affected.
Source: Forbes
Details: Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Warsaw was ready to help Ukrainian authorities bring back the men, adding that "anything is possible" with regard to the mechanisms Poland could use.
Forbes reports that this decision may affect the Polish economy significantly, as out of over a million Ukrainians who have arrived in Poland since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, 371,000 are men subject to military service who can be mobilised according to the Ukrainian law.
A report by Deloitte found that Ukrainian refugees contributed 0.7-1.1% to Poland’s GDP in 2023, and estimated the effect would grow to 0.9-1.35% in the long term.
Due to an increase in the wage pool, higher private consumption, and an influx of foreign capital, Poland’s general government revenue grew by 10.1-13.7 billion PLN ($2,525-$3,425 billion) in 2022 and 14.7-19.9 billion PLN ($3,675-$4,975 billion) in 2023, vastly offsetting the public expenditure on refugees of 15 billion PLN ($3.75 billion) in 2022 and 5 billion PLN ($1.25 billion) in 2023, says the report.
Most Ukrainians in Poland are employed in industrial manufacturing, transport services and construction, with nearly half of them holding jobs below their actual qualifications.
In addition to this, last year almost 10% of new sole proprietorship businesses in Poland were established by Ukrainians, with the largest numbers in construction, information and communication, and other services.
Most Ukrainians who arrived in Poland after February 2022 received temporary protection which allows them to work and use state services even without valid ID. Yet the validity of this provision will expire on 30 June, and it is unknown whether it will be prolonged.
Andrii Arkaniuk, an employment legalisation specialist at Contrain Group, a work agency, says that Kyiv and Warsaw signed an agreement to streamline the enforcement of court judgments in both countries, meaning that default rulings for avoiding mobilisation duty in Ukraine could be successfully enforced in Poland.
"If this happens on a large scale, there could be a mass departure of Ukrainian citizens of conscription age from Poland," he noted.
Background:
- Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister of Lithuania, earlier refuted the reports that her country would assist Ukraine to bring its men of conscription age back.
- Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, stressed that Ukraine would not forcibly bring military-age Ukrainian men back from other countries.ReR
- Jarosław Guzy, Polish ambassador in Ukraine, stated that Poland is unlikely to help Kyiv to forcibly bring Ukrainians of conscription age back and expects that the discussion concerning this issue will be ongoing between the EU countries.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, stressed that Ukrainians who had left Ukraine would have to come back to restore the country's ruined economy.
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