Russian forces noticeably step up pace of attacks – ISW

Russian forces have noticeably stepped up the pace of ground attacks in Ukraine's east over the past month. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian military forces are likely aiming to secure gains before Western military assistance arrives at the line of contact. 

Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group of Ukrainian forces, stated on 9 May that the number of hostilities had significantly increased from 84 on 8 May to 146 on 9 May. He noted that most of the fighting is taking place in the area of responsibility of the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group, stretching from Kharkiv Oblast to the border areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The UK Defence Ministry reported that the number of Russian attacks increased by 17% from March to April 2024. In addition, over 75% of the registered ground attacks occurred on the Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts.

In particular, the number of Russian attacks near the city of Chasiv Yar increased by 200% from March to April. 

Voloshyn suggested that the Russians have intensified attacks as the soil has dried out after the spring mud season, facilitating faster mechanised manoeuvring. He also mentioned that Russian forces are attempting to exploit Ukraine's relative weakness while it waits for Western assistance to arrive.

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will maintain a high pace of attacks across Ukraine’s east to make gains before Western assistance arrives.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 May:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his 9 May Victory Day speech to relitigate his belief that the West is attempting to erase the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War (Second World War), a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West.
• Putin seized on a recent meeting with the commanders of several frontline Russian formations to portray himself as an informed and effective Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, aware of the intricacies of the frontline situation and involved in finding solutions to issues that plague Russian forces.
• Putin surrounded himself with a number of foreign officials at the Victory Day parade, likely in order to posture himself as an effective statesman capable of galvanising an alternative coalition to the power structures of the collective West.
• Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.
• The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilise all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
• Russian forces have markedly increased the rate of ground attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past month, likely reflecting current battlefield conditions and the intent of the Russian military command to secure gains before the arrival of Western military aid to the frontlines.
• Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.
• The Kremlin may seek to capitalise on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia.
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and refinery infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan on 9 May.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continue to struggle with discipline in their ranks, with some Russian soldiers reportedly killing other members of their units. 

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