ISW claims Russian advance slowed down, allowing for break to prepare attack on Toretsk

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think the Russians have delayed their advance and are preparing reserves to attempt to move from their salient north of Avdiivka towards Toretsk to supplement Russian offensives at Chasiv Yar.

Source: ISW

Details: On 30 April, Russian troops did not launch any confirmed offensives in or around Avdiivka for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian sources indicated that Russian troops launched more assaults in the direction of Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar than in Avdiivka.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine's morning and evening reports for 30 April, Ukrainian troops repelled 47 Russian attacks on the Avdiivka front and 57 Russian attacks on the Bakhmut front, while the Russians launched significantly more attacks on the Chasiv Yar front.

A single day's report is insufficient to establish a pattern, but it may indicate that Russian forces are slowing down their efforts near Avdiivka while beginning offensive operations surrounding Chasiv Yar, as predicted by the ISW.

Beginning around 20 April, Russian forces concentrated on establishing tactical success in Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), but by 30 April, the confirmed progress appeared to have stalled.

Russian forces may decide to deploy from their salient north of Avdiivka to Toretsk to augment Russian offensives at Chasiv Yar, which would most likely entail a tactical pause by Russian forces to focus resources on the offensive.

Chasiv Yar is an operationally significant object since it will serve as a launchpad for Russian soldiers to launch offensive assaults on Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, two strongholds that protect Donetsk Oblast's four major cities. If Russian forces attempted to advance north to Toretsk, they would most likely require a longer pause to reinforce current units and redeploy additional soldiers near Ocheretyne.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 30 April:

• Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on 30 April for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces conducted several more attacks in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction than near Avdiivka.
• Russian forces may decide to push from their salient north of Avdiivka towards the Toretsk area to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to conduct a tactical pause to concentrate forces for such a drive.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a short-range MGM-140 ATACMS strike against targets in occupied Crimea on the night of 29-30 April.
• Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin expressed outrage over Russian authorities’ treatment of Central Asian migrants, particularly Tajik citizens, indicating that increased Russian efforts to control migrants living in and entering Russia following the 22 March Crocus City Hall attack are continuing to strain Tajik-Russian relations.
• Former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream political party Bidzina Ivanishvili reiterated a series of standard Kremlin information operations during his first public speech since announcing his return to Georgian public politics in December 2023.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Robotyne.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported on 30 April that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone testing ground in an unspecified area of occupied Ukraine.
• An investigation by Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii implicates Kremlin-appointed Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova and her sister in the deportation of special needs Ukrainian adults to Russia.

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