Russian forces accelerate pace of offensive operations amid rising casualties – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that Russian troops are fast-tracking offensive operations across the entire war zone in Ukraine while "mitigating likely increased manpower and materiel losses".

Source: ISW

Details: ISW noted that Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), stated that Ukraine expects Russian offensive activities to step up in late spring and early summer.

In addition, analysts pointed out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously stated that Russia's primary offensive efforts could begin in late May or June.

Quote: "ISW has recently observed that Russian forces intensified the tempo of their offensive operations across the theatre, including by conducting a roughly reinforced company-sized mechanised assault toward Chasiv Yar on 4 April, and continues to assess that the Russian military appears to be successfully mitigating likely increased manpower and materiel losses."

Details: Zelenskyy and senior Ukrainian military officials have recently cautioned that security assistance delays have caused Ukraine to cede the initiative on the battlefield to Russia and that the Ukrainian military cannot plan a successful counteroffensive or defence unless it is certain about when and what kind of aid Ukraine will obtain.

ISW continues to assess that delays in Western security assistance are forcing Ukraine's Defence Forces to make tough decisions about prioritising certain defence aspects at the expense of countering the Russian military capability initiative or planning future counteroffensive operations, as the ongoing debate in the US over military assistance rages on.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 7 April: 

• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov reported that Ukraine anticipates Russian offensive operations to intensify in late spring and early summer.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with Chinese officials in China on 8 and 9 April amid Western warnings that China is increasingly helping Russia’s defence industrial base (DIB) and even providing China with geospatial intelligence.
• Russian forces reportedly continue to systematically use prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine and are attacking Ukrainian positions with chemical substances almost daily throughout the frontline.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi openly condemned and is taking action following reports that members of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) may have purposefully intimidated a Ukrainian journalist investigating corruption within the SBU by issuing the journalist a draft summons.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on 7 April.
• Chieftain of the All-Russian Cossack Society and Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Nationalities Nikolai Doluda claimed on 7 April that more than 30,000 Cossack personnel have fought in Ukraine.

Support UP or become our patron!