Russian troops prepare offensive, choosing between several fronts – ISW

Russian troops have several tactical options for future offensives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW analysts say that the stabilisation of Russian positions northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice:

• either continue to push west towards its stated operational objective in Pokrovsk;

• or try to push north to conduct possible additional offensive operations around Chasiv Yar.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 29 April:

• Russian forces secured additional marginal tactical gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka as of 29 April but have not made significant advances in the Avdiivka direction over the last 24 hours.
• Russian forces have the opportunity to choose among multiple tactical directions for future offensive drives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future.
• Investigations by both Ukrainian news agencies and Russian opposition outlets suggest that Russia is denying the legal guardians of forcibly deported and adopted Ukrainian children the ability to repatriate these children, further undermining the Kremlin’s claims that the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children is a necessary humanitarian endeavour.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on 29 April that Ukraine’s Western allies must provide long-term, predictable military assistance to Ukraine and signal to the Kremlin that Russia cannot "wait out" Western support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory.
• Telegram recently temporarily blocked chatbots meant to facilitate civilian reports on Russian military activity to official Ukrainian channels, including some channels run by Ukrainian security services.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian officials continue to report that Russian authorities are coercing Ukrainians in occupied Ukraine to join the Russian military.

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