Ukrainian forces' withdrawal from their positions does not help Russia's rapid tactical success – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the withdrawal of Ukraine's Defence Forces from their positions in the settlements of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka is not helping the Russians achieve rapid tactical success, and Russian troops are unlikely to be able to reach deeper operationally significant penetration in the area anytime soon.

Source: ISW

Details: Recent Russian advances have forced Ukrainian forces to retreat from other limited tactical positions along the battlefield west of the war-torn town of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have so far not facilitated rapid Russian tactical gains.

Analysts believe that Russian troops are unlikely to achieve deeper, operationally significant penetration in the area in the short term.

On 28 April, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve the lives and health of Ukrainian defenders.

"Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka direction in the coming weeks, and Ukrainian commanders may decide to conduct additional withdrawals if Russian forces threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions in the area," the institute noted.

The next line of settlements in the area lies some distance from the Ukrainian defence line, which has been under attack by Russian forces since the capture of the war-torn town of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces may use fortifications in fields to the west of the current front line to slow down future Russian attacks.

A complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to fortified positions west of Avdiivka would likely allow Russian troops to make a relatively rapid advance through these fields. However, experts said this advance will likely only be rapid if Ukrainian units do not attempt to hold positions in these fields.

Syrskyi added that Ukrainian forces are redeploying units of brigades that have rested and recovered to stabilise the situation on the Avdiivka front.

The arrival of the restored Ukrainian reinforcements will likely allow the Ukrainian Defence Forces to slow down Russia's tactical advances and potentially stabilise the front.

Ukrainian forces face resource constraints, with a reported one to three personnel shortfall northwest of Avdiivka, but they have nonetheless prevented Russian troops, which are over a division in size, from making the gains that the Russians could have made with such superior numbers.

The deployment of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional equipment will force the Russian command to either accept that wider and deeper penetration of the front line is unlikely anytime soon or send additional reserves to the area to pursue tactical advantages.

At present, Russian forces are able to achieve operationally important successes near the town of Chasiv Yar and are preparing reserves to support a large-scale offensive expected this summer.

The further stabilisation of Russian positions northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice: continue to push west towards its operational objective at the town of Pokrovsk or attempt to push north to mount potential additional offensives around Chasiv Yar.

Ukrainian officials had previously identified Pokrovsk as a Russian operational objective on the Avdiivka front, and Syrskyi confirmed this assessment on 28 April.

Russian forces may also decide to move north from their tactical penetration near the settlement of Ocheretyne along the H-20 (Donetsk–Kostiantynivka) road to put pressure on Ukrainian forces defending in the area of Toretsk and possibly on the operational rear of the Ukrainian defence in the area of Chasiv Yar and west of it.

The Russian military has long aimed to capture the four major cities that form the fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka), with Chasiv Yar being of great operational importance as it would provide a springboard for Russian forces to launch offensive operations on Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.

In addition, Syrskyi noted that the threat of a possible future Russian offensive against Kharkiv is forcing Ukraine to allocate additional forces and equipment to defend the city, although ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to capture the city.

To quote ISW's Key Takeaways on 28 April:

• Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains. Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term.
• The continued Russian stabilisation of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of continuing to push west towards its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northwards to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar.
• Syrskyi also noted that the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City is causing Ukraine to allocate additional forces and equipment to defending the city, although ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city.
• The Ukrainian 47th Mechanised Brigade denied a recent report that Ukrainian forces had pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline.
• Recent Russian efforts to increase control over migrants in and entering Russia following the 22 March Crocus City Hall terrorist attack appear to be straining relations between Russia and Tajikistan.
• Russian authorities arrested several Russian journalists working for Western publications in Russia within the past several days, likely as part of an ongoing effort to limit Western and independent Russian media’s ability to reliably report on Russia.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove.
• The United Kingdom’s (UK) Minister of State for the Armed Forces, Leo Docherty, stated on 27 April that the UK assesses that Russian forces have suffered 450,000 killed and wounded personnel since the start of the full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022.

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