ISW assessed Ukraine's possibilities to liberate its entire territory from Russians

Ukraine's ability to liberate its entire territory in the long term depends on numerous future decisions in the West, the Kremlin and Kyiv. Any discussions that view the prospects of Ukrainian victory or defeat as predetermined outcomes ignore how all involved parties could dynamically change the war course in Ukraine. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Western media continue to report that some US officials began discussions on "freezing the lines" again as the new military aid package to Ukraine may be insufficient for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. 

ISW noted that the current package supporters did not claim that it alone would allow Ukraine to liberate all the Russian-occupied territory and discussions of possible end states of the war are premature as President Joe Biden signed the bill for new aid just two days ago.

The US military aid is currently on its way to Ukraine and it will take several weeks to reach units in the combat zone and significantly impact the battlefield. In the coming weeks, Ukrainian forces will initially have to use US aid to stabilise the front line and stop Russian advances, particularly on the Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar fronts.

The scale and intensity of the projected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024, which is likely to begin in June, is also still being determined. In addition, the Russian military command may actively assess and revise plans for their summer offensive efforts to account for engagements with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainians must defend against Russian summer offensive actions and prevent Russian troops from making significant progress during the summer months before they can challenge the initiative and conduct a counteroffensive later in 2024 or 2025. 

Ukrainian forces must also address the present issues with training new personnel, equipping the new units and restoring the old ones. The exact timeline of these efforts, which is likely to play a significant role in determining Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, is still unclear.

ISW assessed that sufficient and consistent Western support will be crucial for Ukraine's future counteroffensive actions. However, the US and the West will have to react as Ukrainian military command determines the scale and direction of such operations and communicates Ukraine's needs to Western partners in the weeks and months leading up to future counteroffensive operations.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 April:

• Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of "freezing the lines" where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all its territory. Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as President Joe Biden signed the bill authorising the new package only two days ago.
• Public meetings between officials from Russia, Belarus, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea have surged in recent days, with at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings between 22 and 26 April, underscoring the deepening multilateral partnership these states are constructing to confront the West.
• PRC officials claimed that NATO bears responsibility for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between PRC officials and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 26 April.
• Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with immediate and longer-term military assistance, particularly for Ukraine’s air defences.
• The Ukrainian military has reportedly pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline in part because of the widespread threat of Russian drones and other strikes.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the definition of prosecutable anti-war sentiment to portray Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opposing Russia itself.
• Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, although this advance was likely not recent.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tatar-Bashkort service Idel Realii reported on 26 April that Samara Oblast is forming a new "Batyr" volunteer motorised rifle battalion.
• The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a joint statement on behalf of 45 member states stating that Russia has arbitrarily detained thousands of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine and subjected them to cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment. 

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