If Russia seizes Chasiv Yar, it will be able to attack "defensive belt" of many settlements – ISW report
Russian forces pose a real threat of capturing the settlement of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, although they may not be able to do so quickly. The capture of Chasiv Yar would allow Russian forces to launch further offensives against the towns that form a significant defensive belt of Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Military analysts have noted that Russian offensives west of Avdiivka could provide tactical advantages to the occupation troops. And the Russian offensive to capture Chasiv Yar offers Russian troops immediate prospects for an operationally significant advance.
The Russians on the Avdiivka front stand approximately 30 kilometres from their operational goal, which is the town of Pokrovsk, and approximately 17 kilometres from relatively large villages east of Pokrovsk.
Even if Russian tactical successes make Ukrainian forces retreat to positions further west, the current Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka are unlikely to be operationally significant in the short term.
The Russian pressure on Chasiv Yar is growing. Russian troops, currently on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, have intensified their efforts to capture the town since March 2024.
An offensive to capture Chasiv Yar would likely allow Russian forces to launch further offensives against towns that form a significant defensive belt for Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian troops are likely trying to capture as much territory as possible before US security assistance arrives. These weapons will greatly improve Ukraine's defensive capabilities in the coming weeks, and Russian military commanders may intensify offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka as this area offers more opportunities for rapid tactical gains, despite the relative operational insignificance of these gains.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 25 April:
- Russian forces are stabilising their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the front line west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line.
- Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances.
- US officials are reportedly worried that the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. US military assistance is only part of what Ukraine currently needs, moreover; but Ukraine is itself working to address other war fighting requirements — primarily manpower challenges and the expansion of its defence industrial base (DIB).
- Russian forces are reportedly fielding drones adapted to be more resilient against Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on critical sectors of the frontline, likely in an attempt to leverage new technological capabilities to exploit a limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.
- A prominent Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger channel announced that it opened a "media school" in the Balkans, likely supporting Kremlin efforts to expand its reach in the international information space.
- French President Emmanuel Macron emphasised the importance of Europe’s self-sufficiency for its defence and sovereignty during a 25 April speech.
- Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin justified Russia’s ongoing efforts to nationalise Russian enterprises, including defence industrial base (DIB) enterprises on 25 April.
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