Ukraine's 2024 harvest forecast to be 10% down on last year – Ministry of Agrarian Policy

Ukraine's total grain and oilseed harvest will be around 74 million tonnes this year, including approximately 52.4 million tonnes of grain and 21.7 million tonnes of oilseeds. This would represent a 10% decrease compared with the 2023 crop of 82 million tonnes.

Source: preliminary assessments by Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as reported by the ministry’s press service

Details: The ministry stressed that in early 2023, the total gross grain and oilseed harvest for 2023 was also predicted to be over 13% lower than in the previous season, at about 63.5 million tonnes, but weather conditions contributed to an increased harvest.

Quote: "Gross production in 2023 was around 82 million tonnes, with grain accounting for over 60 million tonnes and oilseeds about 22 million tonnes.

So predictions for gross harvest indicators are preliminary and will be adjusted throughout the year depending on circumstances, especially weather conditions," the ministry explained.

Farmers are expected to harvest grain in the following volumes this year: wheat – 19.2 million tonnes (22.2 million tonnes last year), barley – 4.9 million tonnes (5.7 million tonnes last year), and maize – 26.7 million tonnes (30.5 million tonnes).

Soybean production is estimated to rise to 5.2 million tonnes, up from 4.7 million tonnes in 2023. Sunflower production is expected to be 12.4 million tonnes, with 12.9 million tonnes harvested last year. Rapeseed production is expected to reach 4.1 million tonnes, down from 4.7 million tonnes last year.

"The area sown with grain and leguminous crops is anticipated to be 10.6 million hectares (395,000 hectares less than in 2023).

Winter wheat has been planted on 4.3 million hectares of land (-0.3 million hectares), while spring wheat is predicted to cover 0.2 million hectares (+200 hectares)," the ministry’s statement reads. 

Winter barley has been planted on 0.47 million hectares of land (-0.15 million hectares), spring barley on 0.94 million hectares (+0.06 million hectares), and maize on 3.9 million hectares (-62,000 hectares).

Soybean sowing areas have increased, with soybeans expected to be sown on an area of 2.2 million hectares – nearly 400,000 hectares more than last year.

Sunflower is expected to be sown on 5.3 million hectares, which is nearly identical to last year, and rapeseed on 1.5 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares on the previous year.

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