Industrial production of weapons is key – Commander of NATO's Allied Forces Europe

General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of NATO's Allied Forces Europe, believes that providing necessary assistance, primarily artillery ammunition, is crucial to Ukraine's victory in the war, which increasingly resembles a competition between the military industries of two countries.

Source: Cavoli at a hearing of the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee; Voice of America

Details: Cavoli said the seriousness of the situation in the war in Ukraine is difficult to overstate, as Ukraine is "almost entirely dependent" on external assistance to continue the fight. If the US does not continue to support Ukraine, it can lose. 

Cavoli considers Russia to be a "chronic threat" to the US.

At the hearings, which covered a wide range of topics, Cavoli expressed "absolute" confidence that Ukraine can win the war given the appropriate level of ammunition supply, as Ukrainians have got the "skill and determination". The general noted that given the production level, the side with greater determination will win "and that will be Ukraine".

As of now, Ukraine continues to rely almost entirely on the US for the production and 155-mm ammunition supply, in addition to some other key military technologies. European production, Cavoli said, does not yet meet the demand level, despite its gradual growth and investments to its acceleration.

Some European countries, such as Slovakia, were able to quickly reprofile their old factories to produce these shells. However, it will take several months for the production of 155mm shells in the EU to reach the US level.

Meanwhile, other European countries have provided Ukraine with all or nearly all of their available weapons, "Eastern European countries have emptied their pockets for Ukraine. Some of them have given 100% of what they have in a given category".

Cavoli emphasised that fulfilling requests for assistance to Ukraine through the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, which involves over 50 countries, is "complex", as much of the support depends on the military production levels in Ukraine's partner countries, given the depletion of previously available stocks.

Increasing such production is one of the key issues being addressed by allies against the backdrop of Russia forming "strategic partnerships" with China, Iran and North Korea as well as during the blocking of additional funding for Ukraine in the US Congress.

Therefore, in a war that, as US Senator Angus King pointed out, has become a "battle between industrial capacity", Ukraine could "absolutely" win if it were provided with the necessary amount of armaments.

Quote from Cavoli: "They have the skill, but most importantly, they have the determination to accomplish their goals. They need external support until they are able to generate their own industrial production. I agree with you that, in a long war like this, it is, in large part, a matter of industrial production of output. Once that output is achieved, the side with the greater determination will win, and that will be Ukraine."

More details: "We are their main supplier in critical areas, especially in ammunition. Without our help, they will not be able to continue the fight".

In addition to artillery shells, Cavoli also mentioned anti-air defence system launchers and especially air defence missiles as "absolutely critical" at this stage. The United States is currently the main supplier of these military technologies. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is now "very actively seeking" additional missiles for Patriot batteries for Ukraine: "It's vital."

As for the assistance to Ukraine that may be needed after Congress potentially passes additional funding, it will also depend on the level of production in Ukraine and in partner countries.

Cavoli said that it has become really clear that the level of industrial production is now the key: "Not only in terms of capital things... like tanks and so on, but also, more importantly, consumables like ammunition, missiles, etc."

The question of confronting Russia in the future will also depend to a large extent on technology and production, particularly given Russia's use of US components in its weapons.

He also noted that if the current war is a competition of production, Ukraine's ability to deal with the Russian threat in the future will depend on whether it can build forces faster than they can: "Part of that [means] preventing them from building forces quickly. And the fact that they are using components that should be sanctioned and banned is unfortunate, and we have to fix it."

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