Kremlin wants to use Transnistria and Gagauzia to destabilise situation in Moldova – ISW

The Kremlin is hoping to use Transnistria and Gagauzia to conduct hybrid operations to destabilise Moldova in the run-up to EU accession talks and presidential elections.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Evgenia Gutsul, the head of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, met with Sergei Kiriyenko, Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head, in Russia on 7 March, as Moldovan authorities announced that the criminal case against Gutsul would soon be brought to court.

Gutsul asked Kiriyenko to help the Gagauz people open accounts in Russian banks "for social projects", lift the Russian embargo on imports from Gagauzia, and help negotiate with Russian state energy company Gazprom to supply gas to Gagauzia at a reduced price.

Analysts note that the Kremlin's increased focus on relations with Gagauzia, following its recent rhetorical focus on Moldova's other pro-Russian region, the breakaway republic of Transnistria, continues to indicate that the Kremlin is hoping to use both regions to justify hybrid operations aimed at destabilising and further polarising Moldova ahead of Moldova's EU accession negotiations and the 2024 presidential elections in Moldova.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 7 March:

• Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term.
• Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russia fails to achieve these objectives through military means.
• Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine.
• Sweden formally joined NATO on 7 March, becoming the 32nd member of the alliance.
• The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko in Russia on 7 March as Moldovan authorities announced that a criminal case against Gutsul will soon go to court.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Chinese calls for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on 7 March; Russia will likely continue to use such calls to promote long-standing information operations aimed at prompting Western concessions.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on 7 March that it neutralised an Islamic State (IS) terrorist cell that had been preparing an attack on synagogues in Moscow.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupiansk and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 7 March.
• Russian intelligence services likely continue to source and operate sanctioned precision machine tools and dual-use components to produce Russian military equipment.

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