ISW: Russia has seized 505 sq. km of Ukraine's territory since October 2023

Ivashkiv Olena — Friday, 29 March 2024, 06:33

Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War reported that since the start of offensive operations in October 2023, Russian troops have seized 505 square kilometres of Ukraine's territory.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: From 1 January till 28 March this year, Russian troops seized almost 100 square kilometres more than they did in the last three months of 2023.

Military analysts suggest that this pace of advance may be due to a combination of a lack of weapons among the Ukrainians and more favourable weather conditions in winter than in autumn.

ISW noted that this slight increase in the pace of Russian advance does not reflect a threat of Russian operational success.

However, the lack of material and technical resources limits the ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct effective defensive operations while giving Russian forces the flexibility to conduct offensive operations, which could lead to more complex and non-linear opportunities for Russian forces to achieve significant operational success in the future.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 28 March:

Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from making significant tactical gains along the entire frontline, but continued delays in US security assistance will likely expand the threat of Russian operational success.
The continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defence umbrella provides one of the most immediate avenues through which Russian forces could generate non-linear operational impacts.
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