Russia may be preparing major offensive in summer – The Economist

With the onset of summer, the threat of a new large-scale offensive by Russian occupation forces along the entire line of contact is growing, writes the UK edition of the Economist.

Source: The Economist

Details: In the article Russia is gearing up for a big new push along a long front line, published on Thursday, the authors point out that spring brought some suspension of hostilities to the line of contact in Ukraine due to equipment’s inability to move through dirt.

"But it will not last. As spring turns to summer, the fear is that Russia will mount a big new offensive, as it did last year. And Ukraine’s ability to hold it off this time looks much less sure now than it did then. That is why it urgently needs to mobilise more troops and build more robust front-line defences," the article says.

The authors also point out that the delay in providing the necessary military assistance from the United States and Europe poses risks since Russia may "break through Ukraine’s inadequate defensive lines."  

"Yet Ukraine cannot simply blame its allies. It is guilty of mistakes too. One has been its failure on manpower. Russia is gearing up for another wave of mobilisation, with an eye to its next big push. The terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall on March 22nd may actually make this easier for Vladimir Putin, who is using it to claim that Russia needs to be strong in the face of bloodthirsty enemies," the article says.

The authors also write that Ukraine is "very late in reinforcing its own defensive positions," and "the government still dreams of a new counter-offensive, and dreads the idea that the current front line may harden into something very like a border."

"The idea that this line might become the basis for a future peace negotiation is exactly what Mr Zelenskyy has wanted to avoid. But the dangers are now so great that it is the least bad option," writes The Economist.

Background:

• On Thursday, the National Security and Defence Council's Countering Disinformation Centre said that the information about Russians preparing to attack Kharkiv is part of the Russian "fear propaganda" campaign and is not true.

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