Russia to step up rhetoric of "terrorist threats" to support war in Ukraine – ISW

US analysts have stated that after the attack on Crocus City Hall, the Russian authorities will escalate their rhetoric about alleged Western and Ukrainian threats in order to gain more domestic support for the war in Ukraine.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The data analysed shows that Russian officials have linked the US and the West to a broader set of "terrorist" attacks against Russia in the wake of the attack on Crocus City Hall, which is likely to increase rhetoric about perceived Western and Ukrainian threats in order to gain more domestic support for the war in Ukraine.

The Russian Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor General’s Office announced on 27 March that they would consider a request from the State Duma to investigate US and Western financing and organisation of terrorist attacks against Russia.

The Russian Investigative Committee, the Prosecutor General's Office and the State Duma MPs who made this request did not directly refer to the attack at Crocus City Hall. However, Kremlin officials have previously linked Ukraine and the West to the attack on Crocus City Hall but have yet to make formal accusations, and the Kremlin may refrain from doing so as all available evidence continues to point to Islamic State as likely being responsible for the attack.

Russian officials regularly refer to Ukrainian strikes against legitimate military targets in Russia and occupied parts of Ukraine as terrorism and consistently claim that the West is helping to organise these strikes.

The Kremlin is likely seeking to capitalise on broader social fears and anger among Russians following the Crocus City Hall attack by portraying Ukraine, the United States and the West as direct terrorist threats. 

The Kremlin is likely hoping that the perception of Ukrainian and Western involvement in the Crocus City Hall attack will increase domestic support for the war in Ukraine, and Russian officials may invoke a broader understanding of what they consider terrorism to continue to portray Ukrainians as terrorists and the West as a sponsor of terrorism.

The Kremlin could still formally accuse Ukraine of organising the Crocus City Hall attack if it believes that other information efforts are not sufficient to elicit the desired reaction in the country.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 March: 

• The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) released its 38th report on the human rights situation in Ukraine on 26 March, confirming several of ISW’s long-standing assessments about Russia’s systematic violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in occupied territories and towards Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
• Russian officials are tying the US and the West to a broader set of "terrorist" attacks against Russia following the Crocus City Hall attack, likely to intensify rhetoric about alleged Western and Ukrainian threats to generate greater domestic support for the war in Ukraine.
• Russian authorities are increasing legal pressure against migrants in Russia following recent Russian officials’ proposals for harsher measures against migrant communities in response to the 22 March Crocus City Hall attack.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk City on 27 March.
• Russian Storm-Z personnel continue to complain about their poor treatment by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) as the MoD tries to posture efficacy in its force generation and social benefit allocation system.

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