ISW on attack on Crocus: accusation of Ukraine threatens Russia's internal security

The Islamic State Khorasan Province's 22 March attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow represents a significant failure by Russian intelligence and law enforcement.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts note that the available open-source evidence does not suggest any more complex conspiracy theory within or against Russia.

And the fact that Kremlin officials and Russian ultranationalists blame Ukraine for the Islamic State attack could be costly for Russia's internal security and civilian lives.

ISW believes that the Kremlin and its ultra-nationalist mouthpieces are apparently ignoring the clear threat posed by IS and ISIL operations on Russian territory to Russia's internal security and civilian population and instead prioritising the information impact of false accusations of Ukrainian involvement.

The Kremlin has decided that the information value of blaming Ukraine for the Crocus attack is worth any risks to internal security and civilian casualties that Russia may suffer due to its inability to adequately counter the radical Islamist threat within its borders.

To quote ISW’s Key Takeaways on 25 March: 

• The 22 March Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall is a notable Russian intelligence and law enforcement failure, and explaining currently available open-source evidence does not require any wider and more complicated conspiracy theory either within or against the Russian state.
• Kremlin officials’ and Russian ultranationalists’ continued insistence on blaming Ukraine for an attack that IS-K very likely committed may come at the expense of Russian internal security and civilian lives.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed that Lieutenant General Esedulla Abachev became the Leningrad Military District (LMD) Deputy Commander as the Russian military continues the formal disbandment of the Western Military District (WMD) and recreation of the LMD and Moscow Military District (MMD).
• Ukrainian officials stated that the Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on the night of 23 March targeted more Black Sea Fleet (BSF) ships and caused more damage than initially reported.
• The Kremlin continues to lean on long debunked narratives as part of its wider information operations aimed at discrediting and undermining Western support for Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka on 25 March.

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