Russian forces attack Ukraine's energy system to undermine defence industry – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War have suggested that Russia's new attacks on Ukraine's energy system are intended to undermine the country's defence and industrial potential.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian forces carried out the largest series of combined missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion on the night of 21-22 March.

ISW analysts said that the Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities might be aimed at undermining Ukraine's defence and industrial potential, and the Russians were likely trying to exploit the shortage of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems in a new attempt to destroy the Ukrainian energy system.

ISW experts added that Russian forces had failed to destroy Ukraine's energy system on 22 March, but might aim to continue intensive attacks on energy infrastructure in the next series of strikes, especially to take advantage of the ongoing delays in Western security assistance that severely limit the capabilities of Ukraine's air defence system.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 22 March:  

• Russian forces conducted the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion during the night of 21-22 March.
• Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities may aim to degrade Ukrainian defence industrial capacity, and Russian forces are likely trying to exploit Ukrainian air defence missile shortages in a renewed attempt to collapse Ukraine’s energy grid.
• Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations through the spring of 2024 while preparing for an expected offensive effort in the summer of 2024, although Russian forces will likely struggle to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in multiple operational fronts in Ukraine at the same time.
• Russian forces likely seek to exploit current Ukrainian materiel shortages while preparing for efforts that will force Ukraine to expend a sizeable portion of the Western security assistance it may receive in the coming months.
• The Ukrainian military command appears to be prioritising rotations for frontline units but will have to address additional manpower challenges if Ukrainian forces are to seize the initiative even on a localized basis in 2024 as Ukrainian senior military officers say they hope to do.
• Russian authorities reportedly intend to significantly expand crypto-mobilisation efforts starting in the spring of 2024 amid reports about significant decreases in the number of voluntary recruits.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on 22 March that Ukrainian authorities helped return another nine Ukrainian children to Ukrainian-controlled territory from occupied Ukraine and Russia.
• The Moscow military registration and enlistment office has reportedly begun to issue electronic summonses for the Spring 2024 Russian conscription cycle.

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