Ukrainian transit grain only fills 10% of Polish ports capacities – analyst

A total share of Ukrainian grain in Polish ports reaches 10% while its load rate makes up 60% of their entire capacity.

Source: analyst Mirosław Marciniak, as reported by Farmer.pl

Details: Reportedly, the Polish media brings up the issue of a surplus of grain in the domestic market that needs to be exported, which is 4-5 million tonnes. However, Marciniak stressed that it is Polish grain which accounts for a bigger part of this amount.

Marciniak refers to Ukrainian officials who report that in January-February 2024, 515,000 tonnes of grains and oilseeds went through Polish border crossings. Out of this amount 24.3 tonnes were addressed to Polish recipients.

The top importers of Ukrainian agricultural products are Germany (195,400 tonnes), the Netherlands (58,300 tonnes), Lithuania and Latvia (21,800 tonnes each).

Marciniak then referred to the data which states that in July-December 2023 and in January-February 2024, a decrease in grain handling in Polish ports was documented. It is assumed that this drop has to do with significant overload in the first half of the season: it is caused by a successful implementation of the previously signed contracts with more profitable prices.

Marciniak adds that lately, Polish grain has really lost its competitiveness in global markets, and a limited supply by farmers does not motivate exporters to seek sales markets. This leads to a drop in the speed of transit grain handling.

"The transit of Ukrainian grain through Poland will lose its appeal within the next few months," the analyst concluded.

Background:

• Ukraine is ready to accept trade restrictions with the EU in order to ease the long-lasting political debate with Poland, but it also urged the bloc to ban the import of Russian grain.
• Polish farmers continue blocking the lorry traffic at the checkpoints on the border with Ukraine, letting a few trucks pass every day while about 2300 trucks are waiting in queues.
• Ukraine's potential harvest in 2024 is estimated to be 76.1 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, meanwhile the 2023 harvest was 82.6 million tonnes.

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