German intelligence warns of Russian attack on NATO from 2026, media says

The German intelligence services have prepared an analysis of the military threat from Russia for the government, which predicts that "from 2026 onwards", it may attack the territory of NATO member countries.

Source: Business Insider; European Pravda

Details: The analysis by German intelligence services indicates that Russia is preparing for a major conflict with the West, as indicated by the reorganisation of the Russian army, troop movements, and missile deployments in the western part of the country, as well as the expansion of Russian arms production. 

The latter could lead to Russia doubling its military strength over the next five years compared to the present day, especially in conventional arms, according to a secret report.

"It can no longer be ruled out" that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory "from 2026 onwards," such as in the Baltic states or Finland, the report cited by Business Insider says. It emphasises that German agencies have not yet made such specific statements publicly.

Business Insider says that NATO headquarters also shares concerns about the increasing military capabilities of Russia and further confrontation but does not necessarily see it leading to war. 

In particular, Business Insider quotes assessments from American intelligence services, which "in the medium term" do not see the danger of a Russian attack on NATO and believe that Russian armed forces will need another five to eight years to restore the military strength they had before the invasion of Ukraine.

Background: 

• In recent weeks, several European NATO countries have been warning about the risk of Russian aggression. For instance, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated in January that the Alliance should prepare for a Russian attack on a NATO country within 5–8 years.
• Against this backdrop, the Bundeswehr is developing a new comprehensive defence operational plan for the first time since the end of the Cold War. This plan considers the lessons learned from Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine.

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