Lack of ammunition will force Ukraine to make tough choices about which areas to defend – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that a lack of ammunition might force Ukrainian forces to make tough decisions regarding prioritising different parts of the front based on where territorial losses might be the least damaging.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW continues to assess that the lack of artillery shells and delays in Western security aid "will create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans".

"Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare," ISW wrote.

Frontintelligence Insight, a Ukrainian open-source organisation, said that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time from late 2022 to early 2023, when ammunition shortages limited Ukrainian counterbattery warfare capabilities.

Frontelligence said that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, which indicates that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery shells.

Frontelligence also said that Ukrainian forces "can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire," according to the ISW.

In the absence of Ukrainian counterbattery fire, Russian artillery can destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend them, Frontelligence explained.

In addition, according to Frontelligence, many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery systems deployed 15-24 km from the line of contact.

"Western and Ukrainian officials have recently highlighted Ukraine’s need for artillery ammunition," the ISW reiterated.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 2 February:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilisation reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilisation during World War II during a speech on 2 February despite the fact that Russia is undertaking a far more gradual but nonetheless effective mobilisation of its defence industrial base.
•  Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on 2 February that Russian forces retain the "strategic initiative" along the entire frontline in Ukraine, a notable departure from Shoigu’s previous characterization of Russian operations as "active defence."
• Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare.
• US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated on 1 February that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly indicated that he has not changed his aims to capture and subjugate Ukraine.
• Russian military bloggers and ultranationalist figures continue to present themselves as impartial and constructive critics of the Russian military in juxtaposition to official Kremlin sources in the Russian information space.
• Kremlin affiliates reportedly launched an information campaign wherein prominent social media influencers promote the Russian Orthodox Church.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 2 February.
• Russian outlet Izvestiya stated on 2 February, citing sources within the Russian military, that the Russian Ministry of Defence is forming air defence units as part of assault units to defend Russian infantry against Ukrainian drones, frontline air strikes, and shelling.
• Ukrainian and Canadian officials announced a new coalition to return Ukrainian children from Russia to Ukraine.

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