Russians continue offensive near Avdiivka to deprive Ukrainian forces of respite – ISW

US analysts have assessed that the Russian army is continuing its offensive around Avdiivka to deprive Ukrainian forces of a respite that would allow the Defence Forces to create a stronger defence line in the immediate vicinity of Avdiivka.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: A 27 February report by the ISW states that Russian forces are attempting to exploit the tactical opportunities that have emerged since the capture of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high rate of offensive operations aimed at advancing as far as possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish a more cohesive defensive line there which is more difficult to penetrate.

Russian forces temporarily slowed down their operations during the mopping up of Avdiivka after capturing the town on 17 February but have since resumed a relatively high rate of advance to the west and northwest of Avdiivka.

On 27 February, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for the Tavriia Operational Strategic Command, said that Russian forces had recently increased the number of assault groups on the Tavriia front from small groups of squads to platoons and even companies.

Russian troops are currently focusing their attacks west of Avdiivka towards Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenke, where Ukrainian forces have established defensive positions to cover their withdrawal from Avdiivka and repel further Russian offensives.

Lykhovii and Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Command, said that as of 27 February, Ukrainian forces had stabilised their defensive lines along the Tonenke-Orlivka-Berdychi line.

Ukrainian military observers described Ukrainian fortifications west of Avdiivka as "disappointing" and "problematic".

Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces were struggling to hold defensive positions immediately west of Avdiivka and predicted that Ukrainian forces would focus on a defensive line further west, which Ukrainian forces began building in November 2023.

Analysts suggest that Russian forces are likely to continue their offensive to deprive Ukrainian forces of respite that would allow Ukrainian Defence Forces to establish a more cohesive and impassable defence line in the immediate vicinity of Avdiivka.

They add that the capture of Avdiivka allowed Russian forces to push into positions that Ukrainian forces had held for a shorter period of time than Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka or further west, and Russian forces are likely to maintain a high operational tempo to try to exploit this tactical opportunity.

Experts also suggest that the Russians could capture settlements to the west and northwest of Avdiivka in the coming weeks, but the terrain and water bodies to the west of Avdiivka, especially the reservoir between Berdychi and Semenivka-Orlivka, are likely to slow the already relatively slow pace of Russian advance in the area.

In their view, this problematic terrain is likely to limit further Russian tactical advantages and allow Ukrainian forces to take up prepared defensive positions that are likely to contribute to the eventual culmination of the current Russian offensive in the area, at least until the Russians reinforce their attacking elements.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 February:

• Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as possible on the Avdiivka front before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area.
• Russian forces are likely attempting to create an operational manoeuvre force for the exploitation of recent Russian advances on the Avdiivka front.
• The Russian command likely hopes that the reorganisation of command structures will establish more cohesive Russian grouping of forces throughout the theatre in Ukraine.
• Recent developments in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects. 
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight recent Russian tactical successes in Ukraine as substantial battlefield victories for political purposes ahead of the upcoming Russian presidential election. Shoigu additionally highlighted Russia’s Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD) to posture against supposed anti-Russian activity in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on 27 February.
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on 27 February that the ongoing Russian information campaign to demoralise Ukrainian society will intensify between March and May 2024.
• Russia likely tested an element of its Sovereign Internet on 27 February, likely in an effort to strengthen control over individual aspects of the Russian information space.
• Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements across the theatre.
• A Ukrainian official warned that Russia seeks to ramp up force generation efforts in occupied Ukraine following the formal integration of occupied and claimed Ukrainian territories into the Russian Southern Military District (SMD).
• Russian authorities are reportedly systematising the adoption of deported Ukrainian children in Russia.

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