Ukraine's Defence Intelligence lists potential gains for Russians if their Maidan-3 plan succeeds

The Russian occupiers want to destabilise Ukraine with a plan they are calling Maidan-3, and mass protests inside Ukraine and distrust of government decisions would be a success for them, Andrii Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, has said.

Source: Andrii Yusov, representative of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), on UP. Summary

Quote: "To put it simply, what would success for them [the Russians – ed.] be right now? 

For them, it would be a success if there were large-scale protests inside the country [Ukraine – ed.] and distrust of government decisions and institutions.

That would make it extremely difficult for the military at the front; that would make it extremely difficult for the international coalition to continue with their support." 

Details: Yusov said that one example of a failed psyop by Russian propagandists is the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, when Ukrainians united to repel the invading forces. 

The DIU representative added that Ukraine must remain united in order to resist the Russians.

Yusov added that this is not going to be the last Russian information operation. If it fails, he said, they will change their rhetoric and dismiss or remove some of those responsible, including people at the very top of Russia’s military and political leadership.

He noted that some decisions in the Russian Federation will be kept secret and can only be known from Russian sources. 

Yusov said such measures were "typical" of Russia when the situation behind their own lines is unstable.

The DIU representative also stated that the question of the president's legitimacy during the war is absurd, as Ukraine’s Constitution clearly states that elections are not held during martial law. 

He said this raises the question of organisation, namely how to arrange voting in the temporarily occupied territories or for the millions of Ukrainians abroad.

Yusov said that of the US$1.5 billion that the Russians have spent on this operation, US$250 million went on spreading malicious narratives via Telegram. He said the Russians launched the operation in autumn and have now extended it until June 2024. 

The Russians fund influencers and opinion leaders in Ukraine and abroad, and work with the media. Yusov added that in many cases, it is not about direct funding: the main goal is to promote Russian narratives.

In this context, Yusov also emphasised the importance of media transparency and the need to reject anonymous sources of information.

Background:

• The Ukrainian President's Intelligence Committee stated that the culmination of the Russian psyop against Ukraine is expected in the coming weeks, and Russia expects to have destabilised the situation and inflict a military defeat on Ukraine in the country’s east by the first half of June.
• On 16 November 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is seeking to split Ukrainian society, wreak havoc inside the country, and ultimately overthrow the president. According to intelligence, this plan is known as Maidan-3 in Russia.
• On 21 November, Zelenskyy said that Russia wants to remove him as president of Ukraine by the end of 2023 and has come up with a destabilisation plan codenamed Maidan-3.
• Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, said the main goal of Maidan-3 was to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities within the country, but that the operation was failing.
• The President's Office of Ukraine has drafted a submission to the Constitutional Court regarding the legitimacy of Zelenskyy's tenure as Ukraine's president, which expires this spring, but it has not yet submitted it, ZN.UA reports.

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