Russian Maidan-3 PsyOp to culminate in March-May

The Ukrainian President's Intelligence Committee has stated that the Russian psychological operation against Ukraine will conclude in the coming weeks, and Russia expects to shake the situation and inflict a military defeat on Ukraine in the east by the first half of June.

Source: Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence with reference to the statement of the Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine

Quote: "Two years after Russia launched a full-scale war of aggression, Ukraine faced an objective threat to its existence as a state, a nation, and a community of free and equal people.

In the context of deliberately diverting global public attention away from the long and bloody Russian-Ukrainian war, the aggressor country's leadership was able to carry out a plan of planned sabotage, information special operations, and outright provocations.

The enemy's main directions and goals are to disrupt Ukrainian mobilisation, spread disinformation about Ukraine's supposed inability to win, and create and disseminate fakes about ‘Ukraine fatigue’ among our global partners and allies. Russians' global goal is to reduce our country's support from the world's pro-Ukrainian coalition.

The goal of Russians inside Ukraine is to demoralise Ukrainians, instil fear in the population, drive a wedge between servicemen and civilians, and quarrel amongst everyone, including members of the country's political leadership and civil society.

Russian special services have extensive experience with hybrid warfare. They spend the same amount on information attacks against Ukraine as they do on conventional warfare."

Details: The Committee specifically pointed out that Russia had spent nearly US$250 million in November of last year as part of the Maidan-3 special operation to propagate anti-Ukrainian sentiments exclusively on the Telegram platform. However, intelligence indicated that the operation's total budget was an astounding US$1.5 billion. This is the most costly Russian special services operation in history.

Quote: "The special operation Maidan-3 will culminate in March-May 2024, and in the coming weeks, the enemy will cease all efforts to spread narratives harmful to global security and incite conflicts – both within Ukraine and in other parts of the world where Ukraine is effectively supported.

The campaign methodology is traditional for the Russian special services: to question the legitimacy of government decisions made in Ukraine after 20 May, to instil fear and despair, to artificially clash civilians against the military, to foment quarrels with our allies, and to spread all kinds of conspiracy theories in society.

This is happening in the context of the Russian Federation's public statements about the development of new types of superweapons, which the Russians claim will ensure Russia's technical superiority over the West for the next decade. This is done with the intention to convey that resisting Russia's goals in Ukraine is dangerous for the world, and Russia will pressure other countries to engage in direct dialogue on Ukraine without our participation.

Furthermore, the Russians will use their own agents of influence in Ukraine and around the world to organise various protests, deliberately undermining the process of exchanging prisoners of war.

According to the enemy's plan, the situation in our country will deteriorate in the first half of June, and then, taking advantage of the situation, Ukraine will be militarily defeated in the east; this is the central concept of their operation.

Given the foregoing circumstances, we call on Ukrainian society, as well as our international partners and allies, to strengthen joint resistance and comprehensive security measures, particularly in the information space, in order to effectively counter global threats and challenges posed by a new world hybrid war. The Russian Federation and its criminal allies are currently waging war on the entire civilised world."

Background: 

• On 16 November 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was seeking to split Ukrainian society, wreak havoc inside the country and ultimately overthrow the president. According to Ukraine’ Defence Intelligence, this plan is called Maidan-3 in Russia.
• On 21 November, Zelenskyy said that Russia wanted to remove him from the post of President of Ukraine by the end of 2023, for which it came up with a destabilisation plan codenamed Maidan-3.
• Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, stated that the main goal of the Russian operation Maidan-3 is to sow doubts about the legitimacy of Ukrainian authorities within the country, but that operation is failing.

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