Russian oil exports surge to four-month high despite challenges – Bloomberg

Over the past four weeks, the overall export of Russian oil has surged to its highest level in almost four months despite the decrease in Sokol oil supplies.

Source: Bloomberg

This became possible due to a sharp increase in the supply of ESPO oil, compensating for the absence of Sokol. Bloomberg's estimates indicate that the four-week average delivery volumes exceeded Moscow's promised export target by approximately 190,000 barrels per day.

Weekly supply volumes increased by 365,000 barrels per day to 3.5 million, 215,000 barrels per day higher than the target indicator. 

The temporary absence of Sokol shipments is explained by a shortage of tankers needed for oil transportation. Indian refineries fear US sanctions and complain about the high cost of supplies.

Although three cargoes of Sokol oil have been delivered to India this month, and several others have been redirected to China, at least 14 cargoes – totalling about 10 million barrels – are still on ships.

The cost of Russian oil exports has risen to a three-week-high, increasing over seven days to US$1.73 billion on 25 February from US$1.55 billion the previous week. Meanwhile, the average income over four weeks grew by US$115 million to US$1.7 billion per week.

Approximately 1.45 million barrels of oil per day were loaded onto tankers bound for China, increasing the maritime import of the Asian country by 800,000 barrels of oil per day. It is supplied from Russia through pipelines directly or via Kazakhstan.

Ships transporting oil to India averaged about 905,000 barrels a day. 

It is expected that both Chinese and Indian indicators will increase as unloading ports become available for vessels that currently do not indicate final destinations.

Background: Russia has faced difficulties in selling the key Pacific oil grade Sokol to India, which could lead to further export reductions next week. From 1 March, the Russian government will ban petrol exports for six months and increase the diesel fuel sales quota on the exchange to 16%. These measures are intended to combat rising fuel prices.

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