Russian authorities and state-run media keep silent on anniversary of invasion to cover up failure – ISW

Russian officials and state-run media have refrained from commenting on the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion in order to avoid drawing attention to Russia's failures to achieve its stated strategic goals in Ukraine and its lesser goals of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, as well as to the tremendous losses among its forces.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The institute's analysts pointed out a recent Russian public opinion poll that showed that Russians' attitudes towards the war in Ukraine have largely remained unchanged in recent months and that most Russians are generally apathetic towards the war, although not supportive of a second wave of mobilisation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government officials have likely avoided commenting on the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion in an effort to maintain public apathy towards the war, which in part allows Russian officials to continue the war without significant public outcry.

The ISW further assesses that Putin is likely aware that a second wave of mobilisation would be generally unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would spark widespread discontent. However, Putin may be less concerned about public sentiment after his re-election in March 2024 and decide that Russia's need to build up its armed forces outweighs the risks of widespread domestic discontent.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 25 February:

• Russian officials and state media largely refrained from publicly discussing the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, likely in an effort to avoid addressing Russia’s failure to achieve its stated war aims at significant human costs.
• Russian officials and state-run and state-affiliated TV channels likely refrained from commenting on the two-year anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to avoid drawing attention to Russia’s failures to achieve its stated strategic goals in Ukraine and its more immediate goals of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, while also suffering high personnel losses.
• Ukrainian officials discussed Ukraine’s goals and priorities for 2024 on 24 February and highlighted the need for continued Ukrainian innovation and Western aid to accomplish Ukraine’s objectives.
• Drone footage posted on 24 February shows Russian forces committing apparent war crimes near Bakhmut.
• The Russian information space continues to be highly sensitive to the recent losses of A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, suggesting that the issue of deploying and defending these aircraft is of great concern.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russia has not received any long-range missiles from Iran as of 25 February.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Krynky amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 25 February.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to recruit Ukrainian citizens in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military.
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated on 25 February that Russia is holding over 28,000 Ukrainian citizens captive in Russian prisons.

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