No threat of invasion from Transnistria for Ukraine – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Russian military group concentrated in Transnistria is not a threat to Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukrainian officials stated that the likelihood of a ground attack by the Russians on Ukraine from the territory of Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of  Moldova, is low following reports that Transnistrian authorities might call for or organise a referendum on joining Russia on 28 February.

Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Press Centre of the Defence Forces of Ukraine's South, said on 23 February that the Transnistrian authorities' potential call for Russian annexation is aimed at "shaking up" the information environment and generating socio-political tension.

In addition, Andrii Yusov, Spokesman for Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, stated that the information suggesting that the Transnistrian authorities would call for Russian annexation is "​​unconfirmed". 

ISW also noted that they have not seen any signs that the limited Russian military presence in Transnistria might try to conduct a ground operation threatening Ukraine. ISW does not believe this force grouping can launch a full-scale ground operation against Ukraine.

ISW added that they issued a warning forecast on 22 February, estimating that officials in Transnistria might call for a referendum on joining Russia to support Russian hybrid operations aimed at political and social destabilisation in Moldova. However, this warning concerns the threat to Moldova's stability and not the situation in Ukraine.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 February: 

• Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on the night of 22-23 February – the second such aircraft shot down in 2024.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces are planning future counteroffensive operations, although delays in Western security assistance will likely continue to generate uncertainty and constraints on these operations.
• Ukraine-based open-source organisation Frontelligence Insight reported on 22 February that Russian forces are storing missiles and ammunition in previously abandoned facilities near the Russo-Ukrainian border and in occupied Ukraine to shorten and bolster Russian logistics lines.
• Ukrainian officials stated that the probability of a Russian ground attack on Ukraine from Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is low following reports that Transnistrian authorities may call for or organise a referendum on annexation to Russia on 28  February.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia "essentially" froze its participation in the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
• The US, the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, and the European Union (EU) announced new sanctions packages aimed at constraining Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, and Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on 23 February that international sanctions are degrading the quality of Russian missiles amid continued Russian efforts to increase missile production.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) provided additional details on 22 February about the forced deportation of Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Belarus.

Support UP or become our patron!