Ukrainians' opinions are divided on what victory over Russia would look like – survey

A survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre’s opinion polling service has indicated that 85% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will win the war, but they are divided on what victory over Russia should look like.

Source: results of a survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre from 19 to 25 January

Details: The survey showed that of those who believe in victory, 38% of respondents believe that it means the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the country's January 2014 borders.

27% would consider the destruction of the Russian army and an uprising/collapse within Russia to be victory.

13% of respondents would consider the restoration of the status quo as of 23 February 2022 to be victory. 7% would consider victory to be the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine except for occupied Crimea, and 4% would consider the war to be over even if the Russian army remained in control of the territories that were captured as a result of the full-scale invasion (after 24 February 2022).

In general, 85% of respondents believe in Ukraine's victory in this war (ranging from 78% of people living in Ukraine’s east to 88.5% in Ukraine’s west), while 8.5% do not believe in it (from 5.5% in Ukraine’s west to 13% in Ukraine’s east).

Regarding the timing of Ukraine’s victory, of those who believe in it, 20% believe that it will happen by the end of this year, while in February/March 2023, 50% believed that victory would come by the end of 2023.

40% of respondents believe that it will come in one or two years (compared to 26% in February/March 2023).

14% (7% in February/March 2023) believe that victory will take three to five years, and 3% (1% in February/March 2023) think it will take five years or more. 1% (0.4% in February/March 2023) believe that victory is unlikely to happen in their lifetime.

There has also been an increase in the number of people who do not know when they can expect Ukraine to win (22% and 15% respectively).

For reference: The survey was conducted face to face from 19 to 25 January 2024 in 22 oblasts and Kyiv (in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, it was only conducted in Ukrainian-controlled territories where no combat actions are taking place). A total of 2,000 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.

Background: A YouGov survey for the wider study Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine showed that support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but almost two years on from the start of the full-scale invasion, only 10% believe Ukraine can defeat Russia.

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