Head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence: Russia does not have the strength to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts this year

Russia does not have the strength to achieve its main strategic goal of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of this year, said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Ministry's Chief Intelligence Directorate.

Source: WSJ

Quote from Budanov: "They don’t have the strength (to capture all the eastern districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts this year - ed.)."

Details: The head of intelligence admitted that Ukrainian forces, which cannot compete with the Russians in terms of sheer numbers of troops and weapons, are in a difficult situation.

At the same time, Budanov stressed that "Russia also has problems" – its professional army was largely destroyed in the first year of the invasion, and now Russia is throwing untrained conscripts into suicidal assaults. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces are using artillery shells at a greater rate than the country can produce.

Western officials and analysts believe that Budanov's forecast is the best-case scenario for Ukraine for this year. If Ukraine can fight a smart defensive battle, depleting Russian forces while rebuilding its own, it is believed that it will be able to launch a new counter-offensive against a weakened Russian army in 2025.

A recent study conducted by London-based think tank the Royal United Services Institute found that Russian troops are likely to reach their peak at the end of this year and will increasingly run out of ammunition and armoured vehicles in 2025.

At the same time, the publication emphasises that the question of whether Ukraine will receive additional support from the United States, which is currently blocked by Republicans in Congress, is now important.

According to the WSJ, Ukrainian leaders and Western military planners and analysts have expressed concern about the lack of equipment and manpower after Ukraine's failed counteroffensive last year.

Russia, for its part, has proven that it is capable of finding soldiers for its army. As Budanov said, the Russian army has 510,000 troops in and around Ukraine and is capable of recruiting about 30,000 every month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in December that Ukraine has about 600,000 military personnel in various branches of the armed forces, although military commanders say not all of them are combat-ready.

The newspaper also emphasises that Moscow is not using its troops effectively, as all of its minor advances are made at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.

Budanov also tried to put the capture of Avdiivka in a broader context. He said that it took the Russian army almost two years of heavy assaults since the start of the full-scale invasion to capture the city. According to other estimates, almost a decade has passed since the Russians attacked the city in 2014.

"Is that a success for the great, powerful Russian army?" Budanov said.

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