Operational pause or reinforcement: ISW suggests Russians' actions on Avdiivka front

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that the Russian occupiers will have to take an operational pause before resuming offensive operations on the Avdiivka front or redeploy reinforcements from other parts of the front line to prevent the culmination of operations near Avdiivka.

Source: ISW

Details: The pace of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has been reported to have slowed sharply after the capture of the town of Avdiivka.

Dmytro Lykhovii, spokesman for the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group, reported on 19 February that the number of Russian attacks on the Avdiivka front had significantly decreased over the past 24 hours and that Russian troops were currently regrouping and conducting a mop-up operation in occupied Avdiivka.

Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn to a new defence line, which had been prepared in advance and reinforced on "several levels".

Experts suggested that Russian forces might have to make an operational pause before resuming significant offensive operations on the Avdiivka front or move additional reinforcements from other parts of the front line to the area to prevent the culmination of operations near Avdiivka.

Russian forces have reserves for such reinforcements elsewhere on the front line, but ISW has not seen any signs that the Russian command is moving these reserves to Avdiivka.

On the contrary, Illia Yevlash, head of the press service of the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, stated that the Russian command is likely to move the Russian forces gathered around Avdiivka to other parts of the front line in the near future.

ISW noted that they had not yet seen any signs of how Russian forces will decide to distribute their forces that are currently near Avdiivka.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 February:  

• Russian actors conducted a cyber operation regarding Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka, likely aimed at generating panic in the Ukrainian information space and weakening Ukrainian morale.
• The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two more Russian fighter aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35S, in Ukraine’s east on the morning of 19 February.
• The White House is reportedly considering the provision of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in the event that Congress passes security assistance for Ukraine.
• The Russian government eased the requirements for "compatriots" living abroad to apply to resettle in Russia.
• Emirati banks reportedly began to limit some transactions with Russian entities and close Russian citizens’ accounts in September 2023 due to the risk of Western secondary sanctions.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia does not support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 19 February that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has recruited more than 53,000 military personnel since 1 January 2024.
• Russian authorities have reportedly returned Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine and Russia to relatives in Ukraine.

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