Western officials increasingly believe Russia could attack NATO country – FT

Western governments have increasingly warned of a possible Russian attack on NATO countries, based on new assessments of Russia's military capabilities and threats to the Alliance's security.

Source: European Pravda with reference to Financial Times 

Details: "We are living in truly dangerous times [and] at a point when large-scale conflict is more likely than it has been in recent history," said a British military intelligence official.

Russia’s bellicose "intent is still there", said a second UK defence official. "Its land forces have been degraded in Ukraine, but its air force and navy are largely intact, and Russia is still a major nuclear power."

One of the reasons for Western officials' concern is Russia's revival of its defence industry over the past year, which has occurred at a speed that many in the West thought impossible.

Financial Times reported that Russia had produced four million artillery shells and several hundred tanks in the past year. And Ukrainian officials said that this year it would call up another 400,000 people without announcing full-scale mobilisation.

In addition, most Western officials believe that Russia, despite its heavy losses in Ukraine, will be able to rebuild its forces within 5-6 years.

One European official said that Russia's intention and ability to attack a NATO country before the end of the decade is "pretty much consensus" in the military alliance.

"Opportunity is the only variable," the official said.

Financial Times also quoted an unnamed Ukrainian official as saying that Kyiv has "strong intelligence" that Putin is preparing for a war against the Baltic states.

However, some Allies are sceptical that the Russian President intends to attack a NATO member.

In particular, a senior US defence official believes that Putin "takes our Article 5 commitment seriously and does not want to go to war with NATO."

Background:

• The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service believes that Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West over the next decade.
• In recent weeks, a number of European NATO countries also stated that there was a risk of Russian aggression in the near future.
• German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in January that the Alliance should prepare for a Russian attack on a NATO country in 5-8 years.

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