EU exports to Russia reduced to 37% of pre-war level

According to the Ifo Munich Institute for Economic Research, EU exports to Russia have decreased to 37% since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Source: European Pravda with reference to Spiegel

Details: The still high volume of exports to Russia is due to the fact that only 32% of all goods from the EU are subject to sanctions. For example, champagne exports to Russia are subject to sanctions, but prosecco is not.

In addition, many sanctioned goods from the EU can enter Russia through third countries.

Currently, according to the Ifo Institute, about a third of sanctioned goods are absent in Russia compared to the pre-war period due to export restrictions of the EU and other Western countries.

According to reports, China is Russia's primary substitute country of origin for goods that are subject to sanctions. As of now, 61% of these goods are imported from China – in 2021, that percentage was only 35%.

Türkiye is the source of 13% of all goods subject to Western sanctions that reach Russia; in 2021, that percentage was marginally less than 3%.

Russia currently imports 1% of all goods sanctioned from Armenia. Exports to Armenia from the EU doubled during that time.

Quote from Feodora Teti, Deputy Head of Ifo: "In the case of China, the increase in exports to Russia can be at least partially explained by the growth of domestic production. However, in the case of Türkiye and Armenia, a sudden and sharp increase in exports to Russia raises suspicions of evading sanctions."

According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office, German exports to Russia for the year fell by about 38% to about €0.8 billion in November 2023. Accordingly, in November, Russia ranked 16th among the most important destination countries for German exports outside the EU. In February 2022, a month before the attack on Ukraine, Russia was in 5th place.

Background: 

• On 18 December, the Council of the European Union completed adopting the 12th package of sanctions against Russia.
• The 12th package of EU sanctions provides for a ban on direct and indirect import, purchase or transfer of diamonds from Russia.
• In December, prime ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia signed a joint declaration on the unified regional application of European Union sanctions against Russia and Belarus to reduce the risks of circumventing restrictions.

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