Europe must convince Russia it cannot win – FT

According to British historian Timothy Garton Ash, there is currently no situation that could lead to a frozen conflict in Ukraine or a negotiated settlement with Russia. In his view, Europe should wake up and do enough for Kyiv to ensure Ukraine's victory.

Source: Financial Times

The article was written by British historian, journalist and author Timothy Garton Ash. He is the author of the book Homelands: A Personal History of Europe.

Quote: "For a start, we must be clear where things stand on the ground in Ukraine. There is no stalemate of the kind that might lead to a frozen conflict or negotiated settlement, as some in the west naively hope. 

Rather, we are in the middle of a long, complex war that will probably last until at least 2025, if not longer. Neither side is giving up; either can still win, but not both."

Details: It is noted that the choice made in the next few months by the democracies that support Kyiv, i.e. Ukraine's Western partners, will be crucial for the outcome of the conflict.

The author believes that the West is currently doing enough to prevent Ukraine's defeat but not enough to help it win.

The article adds that in 2024, the partners could provide Kyiv with the tools to regain more territory and convince Russia that it cannot win: "That is the only path to a lasting peace."

In his opinion, Ukraine should be provided with more air defence immediately, with more long-range missiles, including German Taurus and US ATACMS, so that Ukraine can continue to push back Putin's Black Sea Fleet.

In the long run, a necessary condition for victory will be more intensive training of Ukrainian troops and a rapid, significant increase in industrial production of weapons and ammunition.

In conclusion, the historian believes that the responsibility thus falls on Europe, as it is, after all, about the defence of a European country.

He also compared the New Year's messages of European leaders.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak did not even mention the war in his laudatory report on his government's successes, which was obviously aimed at this year's general election.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz touched on it only in passing before moving on to the sacred topic of the German economy.

Donald Tusk, the new Prime Minister of Poland, devoted his speech entirely to the restoration of democracy in the country.

French President Emmanuel Macron, focusing on the theme of French pride, proposed a "rearmament of European sovereignty", including "to stop Russia and support Ukrainians".

But it was Finnish President Sauli Niinistö who delivered the most important message: "Europe must wake up".

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was surprisingly blunt: "Ukraine lacks ammunition. Europe has not delivered what is needed. We will press for more European production. It’s urgent. And the Danish F16s will soon be in the air. The war in Ukraine is also a war for the Europe we know."

The historian believes that this is exactly the language we need.

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