Kremlin creates conditions to destabilise Moldova – ISW

Kremlin officials and mouthpieces are setting up information conditions to destabilise Moldova.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts reported that this is being done to prevent Moldova's integration into the EU and the West.

Alexei Polishchuk, director of the Second Department for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in an interview with the Kremlin's TASS news agency published on 28 January that Moldova has begun to "destroy its ties" with CIS member states and the Russian-led CIS organisation as a whole, and that there are rumours that Moldova plans to leave the CIS by the end of 2024. 

Polishchuk said that this decision would not benefit either the interests or the citizens of Moldova and would be disadvantageous for Moldova's economy. Polishchuk also stated that the settlement of the Transnistria issue in Moldova is in a "deep crisis" and that Moldova's economic pressure on Transnistria since the beginning of 2024 has "further delayed" any solution. Polishchuk said that Russia is ready to resolve the deteriorating relations between Moldova and Transnistria "as a mediator and guarantor" of a settlement. 

On 28 January, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian said that Moldova would not return to the 5+2 negotiation process on Transnistria until Russian-Ukrainian relations improve and Russia's war in Ukraine continues.

Russia, in particular, has accused Ukraine of abandoning the Minsk agreements, which basically froze the conflict after Russia's 2014 invasion in anticipation of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Russia may be setting the information stage to make similar claims against Moldova.

ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is likely to create information conditions to justify future Russian aggression in Moldova under the guise of protecting its "compatriots abroad" and the "Russkiy Mir" ("Russian World") concepts that are deliberately based on vague definitions of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in foreign countries.

Russia may try to justify its aggression or destabilisation efforts in Moldova by claiming that Transnistrian residents are in danger because of Moldova's alleged refusal to engage in a settlement process in Transnistria. ISW suggested that the Kremlin may be turning to rhetorical narratives that appeal to a wider audience beyond the "Russkiy Mir".

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 January:

• Kremlin officials and mouthpieces continue to set information conditions to destabilise Moldova, likely as part of efforts to prevent Moldova’s integration into the EU and the West among other objectives.
• Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin reiterated that the Kremlin is not interested in any settlements short of the complete destruction and eradication of the Ukrainian state, likely in an ongoing effort to justify the long-term and costly Russian war effort to domestic audiences.
• The Kremlin also continues to frame and justify a long-term Russian war effort as part of an existential geopolitical confrontation with the West and Nazism.
• Ukrainian Navy Commander Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa emphasised the importance of Ukraine’s ability to technologically adapt and develop as Russian forces continue to adapt to Ukrainian operations in a 27 January Sky News interview.
• The Kremlin will likely use the withdrawals of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to continue efforts to expand Russian influence in Francophone Africa.
• Unnamed Indian government sources stated that India wants to distance itself from Russia, its largest arms supplier, because the war in Ukraine has limited Russia’s ability to provide India with munitions.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting throughout the theatre.
• A Russian source claimed that Rosgvardia is forming the 1st Volunteer Corps with remaining Wagner Group personnel and newly recruited volunteers (dobrovoltsy) following the Kremlin adoption of the law allowing Rosgvardia to form its own volunteer formations in December 2023.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on 28 January that Ukraine and Russia will conduct a prisoner of war (POW) exchange in the near future.

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