US working on new aid strategy for Ukraine not focused on recapturing territories – WР

US President Joe Biden’s administration is putting together a new aid strategy for Ukraine, which focuses on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances, rather than winning back Russian-occupied territory; the strategy also focuses on the long-term goal of strengthening Ukraine’s armed forces and economy.

Source: The Washington Post, citing sources in Biden’s administration

Details: The Washington Post reported that Biden’s administration "is putting together a new strategy that will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy."

A senior administration official told The Washington Post that the goal is to position Ukraine to maintain its battlefield positions while also putting the country "on a different trajectory to be much stronger by the end of 2024 [...] and get them on a more sustainable path."

The US plan is part of the multilateral efforts by nearly 30 countries to offer Ukraine long-term security and economic support, "both out of necessity, given the disappointing results of last year’s counteroffensive and the conviction that a similar effort this year would likely bring the same outcome, and as a demonstration of enduring resolve to Russian President Vladimir Putin," The Washington Post wrote.

Each country is preparing a document outlining its specific commitments for up to 10 years in the future.

"But the success of the strategy depends almost entirely on the United States, by far Ukraine’s largest donor of money and equipment, and coordinator of the multilateral effort," The Washington Post reported.

This spring the Biden administration hopes to release its own 10-year commitment, which is now being compiled by the State Department with the White House approval. For that to happen, President Biden’s US$61 billion request for supplemental Ukraine funding first has to be approved by the US Congress.

The "shaky ground" on which the congressional approval currently rests, with House Republicans appearing to vehemently refuse the money, has worried both Western allies and Ukraine itself.

US officials told The Washington Post that the new document will guarantee support for short-term military operations as well as build a future Ukrainian military force that can deter Russian aggression. "It will include specific promises and programmes to help protect, reconstitute and expand Ukraine’s industrial and export base, and assist the country with political reforms needed for full integration into Western institutions," The Washington Post wrote.

Another US official said that the hope is that the long-term promise (assuming congressional support) will also "future-proof" aid for Ukraine against the possibility that former president Donald Trump wins in the upcoming elections.

The Washington Post wrote that the West’s hope for 2024 is that Ukraine will avoid losing more territory than the one-fifth of the country currently occupied by Russia and that the Ukrainian government will focus on tactics where its forces have had greater recent success, including longer-distance fires.

In conversations with lawmakers, administration officials have stressed that only about half of the requested US$61 billion is targeted at the current battlefield, while the rest is "directed toward helping Ukraine undergird a secure future without massive Western aid".

US officials closely involved in the planning of the new strategy document said it was being written with four phases in mind: fight, build, recover and reform.

The plan also includes additional air defence to create protective "bubbles" around Ukrainian cities beyond Kyiv and Odesa and to allow key parts of the Ukrainian economy and exports to recover. 

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