Any ceasefire would benefit Russia – ISW

Having analysed the collected data and statements from public Russian figures, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has emphasised that it has continued to believe that "any ceasefire would benefit Russia".

Source: ISW

Details: ISW noted that Russian demands for Ukrainian "neutrality" and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and remain one of the main justifications for Putin's invasion of Ukraine and any hypothetical concession to these demands would signify Putin's serious strategic and rhetorical retreat, which he is unlikely to be considering now.

Russian calls for Ukrainian "neutrality" entail demands for Ukraine to amend its Constitution to remove commitments to obtaining NATO membership and obligations not to join NATO or the European Union (EU).

Analysts, using the gathered data, emphasised that demands for such a "neutral status" have been the goal of Putin's decade-long efforts aimed at pressuring changes within NATO that would weaken the Alliance to the point that it would be unable to deter or defeat future Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.

Moreover, ISW indicated that Putin is unlikely to make concessions as he will not cease pursuing his goal of controlling Ukraine and weakening NATO unless decisively defeated.

The analysed sources indicated that Russian public figures might simulate interest in concessions regarding Ukraine's position in Western institutions, attempting to prompt the West into preemptive actions regarding Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Reports about Putin's openness to negotiations through informal channels do not mention Russia's readiness to relinquish any occupied Ukrainian territory.

Russian officials continue to show that Putin's maximalist goals do not exclude the Russian annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories or additional territorial gains in Ukraine.

ISW added that Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO is a prolonged process that will not be possible immediately after any ceasefire is achieved through negotiations. Russia may temporarily pretend to agree with these demands to strengthen control over the occupied territories quickly. 

ISW pointed out that they continue to believe that any ceasefire will benefit Russia, giving it time to recover and regroup for future offensives with the same maximalist goals and further territorial conquests in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, experts added that "there is no reason to assess that Putin would not renege on any commitment to permit Ukraine to integrate into Western political, economic, and military institutions as long as the Russian military can pursue his objectives to prevent Ukraine from doing so". 

ISW also pointed out that Putin has violated Russia’s previous commitments not to infringe upon Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, including Crimea, made in 1991 and 1994.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 26 January:

• The Kremlin and US officials rejected rumours about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations amid continued indications from the Kremlin that Russia seeks nothing less than full Ukrainian and Western capitulation.
• Russian demands for Ukrainian "neutrality" and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and continue to be one of Putin’s central justifications for his invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession on these demands would represent a major strategic and rhetorical retreat on Putin’s behalf that Putin is extremely unlikely to be considering at this time.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated boilerplate Kremlin narratives that blame Ukraine for the war while also highlighting Russian forces in the Soledar direction.
• The circumstances of the 24 January crash of a Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft in Belgorod Oblast remain unclear.
• The European Union (EU) will provide Ukraine with an additional five billion euros to meet "urgent military needs" in the near future.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues efforts to expand Russia’s influence and subsume previous Wagner Group operations in Africa.
• Russia reportedly imported US$1.7 billion worth of advanced microchips and semiconductors in 2023, primarily from the West, skirting Western sanctions intended to deprive Russia of such technology.
• Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements throughout the theatre.
• Elements of Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin’s alleged personal private military company (PMC) may have deployed to Ukraine.
• Russian opposition media reported on 26 January that Viktor Filonov, a Russian soldier in the 234th Airborne Regiment (76th VDV Division) serving in Ukraine, adopted a Ukrainian child from occupied Donetsk Oblast.

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