Estonian intelligence says Russia eases its offensive against Ukraine

Estonian intelligence has seen signs of a gradual decrease in the intensity of Russian offensives in Ukraine but notes that the Russian army is gearing up for another assault near the town of Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast).

Source: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Chief of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, during a briefing on 26 January, as reported by European Pravda, citing ERR, an Estonian public broadcaster

Details: Kiviselg said the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine has not changed much over the past week.

"The overall intensity of the fighting has decreased compared to previous weeks, with one exception. The number of bombardments by the Russian Federation tends to increase in the area of Avdiivka," he said.

The Estonian intelligence representative noted that the decrease in combat activity is mainly attributed to weather changes such as increased precipitation and the persistence of above-zero temperatures, which make the ground sodden and impassable for vehicles.

Meanwhile, Kiviselg added that the Russians are continuing to engage in heavy fighting near Avdiivka, where they are amassing hardware, likely as part of their preparations for another breakthrough attempt.

"It is likely that the current intensity of offensive activity near Avdiivka and its possible reorientation also seek to break Ukrainian morale," said the Estonian Defence Forces intelligence chief.

At the same time, Kiviselg added, Ukrainian forces managed to hold the territories they liberated in the southern part of the front line, especially on the Dnipro River's eastern bank. Summing up, Kiviselg said an operational breakthrough by Russia in Ukraine in the coming weeks is unlikely.

"We can confidently say that the Russian offensive activity is beginning to show signs of decline in the general context of deteriorating weather conditions. Once mobility is hampered, armoured vehicles are slowed down, trenches are filled with water, the battle of wills will begin to show, and there is no doubt that Ukraine will have much more determination to win these battles in defence of its own country," the Estonian intelligence chief said.

Last week, the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre explained how the Russian Armed Forces managed to achieve partial success south of the town of Marinka.

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