Russia uses Il-76 crash to sow dissatisfaction in Ukraine – ISW

Ivashkiv Olena — Thursday, 25 January 2024, 05:42

Wreckage of the IL-76 aircraft in Belgorod Oblast. Photo: Russian media

Russian media have been using the Il-76 crash to sow internal dissatisfaction in Ukraine and undermine the West's willingness to continue providing military support to Ukraine.

Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The ISW cited Andrey Kartapolov, Head of the Defence Committee of Russia’s State Duma (the lower chamber of the Russian parliament), who claimed that Ukraine intentionally shot down the Il-76, knowing that Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW) were on board. He called for suspending all prisoner exchanges indefinitely.

Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, accused Ukraine of involvement in the catastrophe, attributing it to the Ukrainian "internal political struggles".

In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who is now in New York for a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting, called for an urgent convening of a UNSC session dedicated to the aircraft crash and accused Ukraine of terrorism.

The ISW noted that such Russian accusations are partly aimed at sowing dissatisfaction in Ukraine and increasing distrust in the Ukrainian government, aligning with other Russian information efforts to undermine Ukraine from within.

The ISW pointed out that the POW exchanges are a sensitive issue for both Russia and Ukraine, and rhetorical references to POWS predictably evoke an emotional response.

In addition, Russian officials made unfounded claims that Ukraine shot down the Il-76 with US or German missile systems, possibly in an attempt to dissuade Western partners from providing Ukraine with critically important air defence systems necessary for continued defence.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 24 January:

A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast on 24 January.
Russian information space actors are seizing on the Il-76 crash to sow domestic discontent in Ukraine and undermine Western will to continue giving military support to Ukraine.
Russian law enforcement authorities are codifying xenophobic profiling methods suggesting that migrants are predisposed to criminal activity against the backdrop of continued conflicts between Russian citizens and naturalised migrants.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian hackers recently conducted cyberattacks on Russian intelligence and communications infrastructure.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during the 18th Ukraine Defence Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany that recent Russian missile strikes against Ukraine underscore the need to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences.
Russian and Chadian officials met in Moscow on 24 January, suggesting that Chad may be the Kremlin’s next target among former French colonies on the African continent.
The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) controlled Africa Corps published photos on 24 January claiming to show Africa Corps personnel arriving in Burkina Faso.
NATO announced on 24 January that the Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises have started and will run until 31 May 2024.
Positional engagements continued throughout the theatre.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to bolster the reputation of Chechen forces.
Russian occupation authorities are setting conditions to coerce voter turnout in the upcoming March 2024 presidential elections.