Seaborne shipments of Russian oil fall to lowest level partly due to Ukrainian drone attack – Bloomberg

Seaborne shipments of crude oil from Russia have dropped to their lowest level in almost two months due to adverse weather and a Ukrainian drone strike that briefly halted the flow from a key Russian export terminal in the Baltic.

Source: Bloomberg

Details: Around 3.36 million barrels of crude oil per day were shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks leading up to 21 January. This is 50,000 barrels per day less than the revised figure for the period to 14 January.

The more volatile weekly average fell by 340,000 barrels per day to a seven-week low of 3.02 million.

The exports were reportedly hit by ongoing adverse weather in some ports and a Ukrainian drone strike on a condensate processing plant adjacent to the crude oil export terminal in Ust-Luga, Russia's Leningrad Oblast.

Port maintenance and deteriorating weather conditions may reduce supplies again this week, while a drone attack has opened a new front in the war, highlighting the vulnerability of oil exports from Russia's western ports.

Russia announced that it would cut oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day below the May-June average during the first quarter after several other members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) group agreed to further limit production.

The Russian cut will be split between crude oil supplies, which will be reduced by 300,000 barrels per day, and petroleum products. The four-week average for crude oil was about 220,000 barrels per day below the May-June level.

All Russian oil destined for Asian customers from Western ports continues to pass through the Red Sea despite attacks on merchant ships by Yemen-based Houthi rebels. The militants have assured Russia and China that the group is "ready to ensure the safe passage of their ships in the Red Sea".

The gross value of Russia's crude oil exports fell to a five-week low of US$1.38 billion in the seven days to 21 January, from US$1.52 billion last week. At the same time, the average four-week revenue also fell by US$25 million to US$1.52 billion a week.

Background:

• Russia's Novatek plant on the Baltic Sea coast has suspended operations following an attack by Ukrainian drones.
• The 21 January night attack on the sea terminal in Russia's Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast, was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine.

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