Russian Novatek may take several weeks to recover from Ukrainian attack – Reuters

Some Russian analysts have said that Novatek, the Russian energy plant, attacked by Ukrainian drones on the Baltic Sea coast could resume operations in a few weeks or even months.

Source: Reuters with reference analysts at Moscow-based brokerage BCS

Details: Novatek could resume large-scale operations at its Ust-Luga refinery and Baltic Sea terminal within weeks after a suspected drone attack that disrupted oil flows to Asia, analysts said.

"We believe the plant is likely to return to significant capacity within weeks or, at worst, months," analysts at Moscow-based BCS brokerage said in a note.

Novatek said on Sunday that it had been forced to suspend some operations at its huge Baltic Sea export terminal and a "technological process" at the complex due to a fire caused by what Ukrainian sources said was a drone attack.

The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported with reference to local authorities that two storage tanks and a pumping station had been damaged in the incident.

Novatek declined to comment on this.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that the Russian military and other state bodies are taking the necessary measures, including boosting the air defence, after the alleged Ukrainian drone attack on the terminal.

The Novatek complex receives gas condensate, a type of light oil, for processing at around 7 million metric tonnes a year from the Purovsky plant in Western Siberia to produce petroleum products such as naphtha, jet fuel and gas oil.

Analysts believe that Novatek will now be forced to export more gas condensate instead of high-margin fuel through other terminals.

Sinara Investment Bank said that a quarter of Novatek's revenues could be affected by the incident.

Novatek also exports gas condensate from the Arctic port of Sabetta. Last year, exports rose by about 20% to 960,000 tonnes from 800,000 tonnes in 2022.

Last year, Russia exported a record volume of crude oil used to make petrochemicals to Asia after the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian oil products in February.

"Novatek exports quite a bit of light and heavy naphtha, about 2 million metric tons each ... a lot of that ends up in Singapore Straits, Taiwan and China," said Armaan Ashraf, global head of NGLs at energy consultancy FGE.

LSEG stated that in 2023, 5.2 million tonnes of oil were shipped to Asia from the port of Ust-Luga, where several export points are located, of which 2.8 million tonnes were shipped from the Novatek terminal.

According to Kpler and LSEG, two to four shipments of crude oil/light condensate totalling up to 250,000 tonnes were shipped from the terminal in January, heading to Asia.

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