Abandoning nuclear weapons and internal rebellions: Senior Ukrainian official explains when talks with Russia are possible

Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, believes that Ukraine may negotiate with Russia if the latter suffers a tactical defeat on the battlefield, voluntarily gives up nuclear weapons and experiences internal riots.

Source: Podoliak during the national joint 24/7 newscast

Details: Answering the question about possible preconditions for negotiations, Podoliak stressed that Russia is only ready to negotiate on ultimatum positions and seeks the absolute destruction of Ukraine. The official believes that unless Russia has suffered significant tactical defeats on the battlefield, it will use any truce to prepare for the next stage of the war.

Quote: "If the negotiations start at a time when Russia has suffered certain tactical defeats, the processes mentioned by Mr Danilov [Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council - ed.] take place, and we see certain social tensions, certain internal riots – then yes, of course, negotiations are possible. And at the same time, to say talks are possible and Russia should voluntarily give up nuclear weapons. This is similarly possible only when Russia suffers a global defeat..

What is a global defeat? The Russian Federation will no longer be able to dominate not only Europe but the international political process in general; it will not have the resources to do so and will not be able to use its veto power, for example, in the UN Security Council, and will not have the support of a range of other totalitarian states, as it will be seen as a country that has lost the war. Then conditions on nuclear weapons, on the number of nuclear weapons carriers, including missiles of a specific range, on transboundary buffer zones, etc., are possible.

But this will only be possible if three processes take place: the first is Russia's tactical defeat in Ukraine; the second is the sanctions' effective operation, when European companies finally leave the Russian markets; and the third component is when based on all this, the processes we saw in the summer of 2023 when Prigozhin [Yevgeny Prigozhin, the deceased Chief of the Wagner Private Military Company – ed.] marched on Moscow through Rostov and Voronezh, will begin in Russia, and after that we will see a significant internal social conflict in Russia."

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