Russia wants to present NATO exercises as provocation – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russia is continuing its efforts to portray NATO's Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises in the information space as provocative.

Source: ISW

Details: Russia is conducting an information operation to portray NATO's Steadfast Defender 2024 defensive exercises, which are a response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine and Russian threats to NATO members, as provocative. 

The NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises are due to start this week and will last until May 2024.

The report recalls that the Russian Foreign Ministry has reacted to the initial announcement of the Steadfast Defender exercises in September 2023, falsely claiming that NATO exercises are becoming more provocative and aggressive. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry asserted that NATO continues to be a "demonstration of force" on Russia's "doorstep".

The ministry also claimed that Russia has regularly proposed de-escalation initiatives to NATO and urged NATO to refrain from provocative actions, while Russia itself has relocated its military exercises deeper into the country. 

Russian sources asserted that NATO uses exercises to "whip up" and encourage Baltic countries to prepare for war with Russia, portraying these exercises as a "series of provocations".

Yulia Zhdanova, a member of the Russian delegation at the 1066th Plenary Meeting of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), expressed a similar view on 17 January, asserting that NATO exercises along the Russian and Belarusian borders "provoke a game of nerves" and "compress the spring of escalation even more".

A Russian military blogger associated with the Kremlin rejected the remarks of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius regarding a possible future Russian attack on NATO, claiming that European officials regularly make statements about the "concept of the Russian threat" and that few Germans actually agree with such statements.

He suggested that the German government is trying to artificially create a threat from Russia that doesn't actually exist, paying experts to "say the right words". 

The ISW noted that Russia's information operation, which seeks to depict NATO's defensive responses to actual Russian aggression on the Alliance's eastern flank as provocative, aims to distract attention from recent aggressive Russian rhetoric and conduct towards NATO.

Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have recently threatened Finland and the entire NATO alliance. 

ISW continues to believe that Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 not to protect Russia from a fake NATO threat but rather to weaken and ultimately destroy NATO, a goal he continues to pursue.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 19 January:

• Russia is conducting an information operation to misrepresent NATO’s defensive Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises – a response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Russian threats directed towards NATO members - as provocative.
• Russian forces will be able to determine the location, tempo, and operational requirements of fighting in Ukraine if Ukraine commits itself to defensive operations throughout 2024 as some US officials are reportedly pressing Kyiv to do.
• US officials reportedly assess that Ukraine will have to fight a long war and continue efforts to secure as much security assistance as possible for Ukraine before 2025 while expecting that positional fighting may continue in Ukraine until 2026.
• Russia is trying to mend its relationship with South Korea to mitigate the impacts of its growing reliance on North Korea.
• Protests in support of an imprisoned prominent Bashkort activist continued in the Republic of Bashkortostan, but Kremlin mouthpieces denied reports that the protests are significant in scale.
• The Russian government continues efforts to codify legal oversight of the activities of migrants living in Russia.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allocating funds for the search, registration, and legal protection of Russian property abroad, which includes property in former territories of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances southeast of Kupiansk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions southeast of Kupiansk amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.
• The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) "Vostok" Battalion stated on 19 January that it will resume fighting on the frontlines in Ukraine when the period of positional fighting ends and will "continue to serve" after the war, presumably subordinated to Rosgvardia.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to leverage the provision of social benefits and healthcare to augment passportisation efforts in occupied Ukraine.

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