Ukraine may start another counteroffensive in 2025 – CNN sources

Sources in international intelligence and military officials believe that combat action in Ukraine will go on for at least two more years. Furthermore, some believe that there will be no major victories on the battlefield in 2024, since both Ukraine and Russia will restore their military strength, and that Ukraine can restart its counteroffensive in 2025.

Source: CNN

Quote: "No matter what happens in American politics this year, US and Western intelligence officials believe that Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to go on for much longer.

Assessments vary, but virtually all of them assume that there will be at least two more years of fighting, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence — long enough to outlast Biden’s first term.

Privately, some US and Western officials say there could be as many as five more years of fighting."

Details: A US military official currently stationed in Europe said another attempt at a massive counteroffensive by Ukraine will most likely be made in at least two years with the aim of defeating the Russian forces in the occupied city of Melitopol.

He said US and Western officials do not expect either Ukraine or Russia to achieve major victories on the battlefield in 2024.

The military official believes both sides are "too exhausted in terms of troops and equipment to see huge moves in 2024". He said Ukraine considers 2025 "a more feasible option in terms of what they can generate to start another offensive".

Biden administration officials and lawmakers, including some Republicans, are eager to approve and send funding to Ukraine before the upcoming US presidential election, i.e. by 2025, due to the potential victory of Republican Donald Trump, who could block aid to Ukraine.

However, in the short term, US intelligence officials do not believe that a reduction in US funding will have a significant impact on the hostilities in Ukraine.

Russia is trying to regroup, which gives Ukraine some time, according to sources familiar with the assessments.

However, one of the sources suggests that in the long term, the absence of US assistance could allow Moscow to regain momentum by increasing arms sales and taking advantage of support from Iran and North Korea.

US officials are also considering the impact that a withdrawal of US support could have on other allies, sending a signal that Washington does not have the political will to support allies and partners in the long term.

Another concern is that Europe is following the example of the United States and beginning to withdraw some aid.

One US official said that Ukraine will spend this year working to strengthen its defence industrial base and rebuild its armed forces in anticipation of even more fighting in 2025. This is a strategy that Russia is likely to focus on as well.

A Western intelligence source said that in the short term Ukraine might be able to hold out without US support, albeit in a stalemate, but that this would still be a significant loss not only for Ukraine but also for the US’s standing in the world.

Quote from the source: "It shows [Russia] they were able to take territory and shows other nations they can take territory by force. The whole point here is to show that in today’s day and age, major powers cannot just go and take territory by force."

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